China suspended exports of oil products to destinations outside Hong Kong and Macao in October 2026, a move that could tighten supplies available to several major buyers, including Singapore, Malaysia and Australia, and increase pressure on fuel prices in Asia.
Expectations of lower shipments from China, the world’s largest oil-refining hub, drove Asian gasoline refining margins to a record above $50 per barrel over Brent crude on Thursday, October 1, 2026. Monthly spreads for gasoil and jet fuel also widened, with prompt prices rising relative to futures contracts.
Decline in gasoline shipments to Singapore
Singapore, the largest buyer of Chinese gasoline, imported 1.772 million metric tonnes, equivalent to 14.97 million barrels, during the first nine months of 2026, according to data from analytics firm Kpler. The volume was 62% below its total imports in 2025, as light-distillate inventories at the Asian oil-trading hub fell to a five-year low.
Singapore uses some of its imported gasoline for blending and re-export, with Indonesia the main destination for those shipments. Muhammad Baron, a spokesman for Indonesian state energy company Pertamina, said the company was monitoring developments in China’s fuel-export policies, adding that it had a diversified supply portfolio and supported increasing domestic production and developing biofuels to reduce reliance on imports.
Jet fuel and diesel
Jet fuel, or kerosene, accounts for the largest share of China’s fuel exports, most of which are destined for Hong Kong, which is exempt from the restrictions. Australia became the second-largest importer of Chinese jet fuel in 2026, followed by Vietnam, Japan and Malaysia.
In the diesel market, Singapore is the leading importer of Chinese supplies after Hong Kong, followed by Australia, Malaysia and Bangladesh. The premium for jet fuel over diesel rose to about $2 per barrel, a level not seen since mid-July 2026.
Australia’s inventories limit the immediate impact
The Australian government said on Friday, October 2, 2026, that the country held 42 days’ worth of gasoline inventories, 110% above the required volume, along with 29 days’ worth of jet-fuel inventories, adding that the levels were within the normal range.
The government added that 45 vessels were en route to Australia and that 3.5 billion liters of fuel were scheduled for delivery over the next four weeks. Mukesh Sahdev, senior oil analyst at X Analysts, said the immediate impact on Australia was limited because diesel accounts for the bulk of its imports and comes mainly from South Korea, Taiwan, Brunei and Malaysia. He added, however, that the absence of Chinese barrels from the wider market would push up prices for all buyers.
