The number of vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz fell to just 7 on Thursday, from an average of 15 vessels a day over the previous 10 days, according to Kpler data. Traffic through the strait ranged between 6 and 7 vessels a day. The decline raised concerns that around 10 million barrels a day could remain disrupted—equivalent to 10% of global consumption of 102 million barrels a day—and prompted major importers in Asia and Europe to increase their focus on African oil and gas supplies.
Shipping declines and oil price surge
Shipping disruptions coincided with sharp increases in oil prices, with Brent crude and West Texas crude rising above $100 and $104 a barrel, respectively. Both posted weekly gains approaching 10%, their biggest since May.
Hassan Hafez, a former spokesman for the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, or OPEC, and an energy specialist, said markets were facing a bullish mix driven by declining traffic through key straits and renewed competition for available barrels, particularly from China. He added that falling strategic inventories in major countries could boost demand to rebuild reserves, despite OPEC lowering its forecast for global demand in 2026 to 105.8 million barrels a day.
Energy flows are facing simultaneous pressure in the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb. Before the war broke out on Feb. 28, the Strait of Hormuz received around 125 large commercial vessels a day, including oil and gas tankers. Volumes equivalent to around 7% of global oil production pass through the Bab el-Mandeb, according to Kpler data, prompting more tankers to reroute around the Cape of Good Hope as disruptions widen, lengthening voyages and raising freight costs.
African crude grades attract buyers
Importers’ moves have increased demand for African crude grades. Africa produces more than 7 million barrels a day, or 7.5 million barrels a day according to International Energy Agency estimates, despite the long distances and logistical challenges.
Leading African suppliers
Nigeria: Produces 1.6 million barrels a day, and its crude grades have seen rising demand from Asia as buyers seek to make up part of the Gulf supply shortfall.
Angola: Produces 1 million barrels a day and has played a growing role in meeting the needs of major importers, led by China and Indonesia.
Libya and Algeria: Produce 1.4 million barrels a day and 1.1 million barrels a day, respectively, and have strengthened their positions as suppliers to European markets. Algeria has also attracted interest from Asian importers, including India.
Other producers: Crude grades from the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Gabon, Equatorial Guinea, Ghana, Chad and South Sudan have gained greater weight amid tightening supply.
Trading data showed Indian refineries buying around 6 million barrels of West African crude to cope with shipping disruptions. Werner Ayukegba, senior vice president of the African Energy Chamber, said the crisis had returned Africa to the forefront of the global energy security map.
Ayukegba said 12 energy-sector contracts had recently been signed in Rwanda to secure supplies for Asian countries such as Indonesia, as QatarEnergy, Eni and BP stepped up their activities and investments across the continent.
Gas projects and pressure on importing countries
Mauritania and Senegal entered the liquefied natural gas export market through the Greater Tortue Ahmeyim project, which recorded 19 cargoes in the first half of 2026. This coincided with progress on gas projects in Tanzania costing $42 billion and in Mozambique costing $20 billion, along with developments in Namibia, Côte d’Ivoire and Uganda.
Alongside the additional revenues for African exporting countries, an International Monetary Fund report pointed to a higher energy import bill for African importing countries, bringing pressure on trade balances and inflation rates. The current shifts therefore combine gains for producers with heavier burdens on importers.
