Copper prices broke above 14800 dollars a tonne for 3-month contracts on the London Metal Exchange, reaching unprecedented record levels, while copper futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose by about 1% to 16700 dollars a tonne, according to the latest trading data cited in the article, which does not specify a date.
Strong gains and expectations of sustained high prices
Copper has gained more than 16% since the start of the current year, while banking group ANZ expects the price to exceed 15,000 dollars a tonne early next year.
Natalie Scott-Gray, senior metals analyst at StoneX, said copper had risen by more than 40% since October, and forecast that prices would remain elevated and on an upward trajectory through the end of the current year amid uncertainty and market turmoil. She added that the final quarter of the year usually sees a seasonal increase in demand for metals, supporting prices through year-end.
Tight supply and tariffs support the market
Scott-Gray attributed part of the rise to uncertainty over tariff policy, noting that 15% tariffs had been imposed on copper products under Section 232 since February, prompting an influx of 1.2 million tonnes into the US market and reducing the quantities available globally. She said the ultimate direction of prices remained tied to expected official decisions, while current factors supported keeping them at elevated levels.
Additional factors behind copper's rise
Structural, long-term demand: Consumption is increasing as a result of the electrification transition, artificial intelligence applications, digitalisation and the development of renewable-energy grids, with expectations of a severe deficit by the end of the decade.
Mining challenges: Companies are struggling to meet demand through 2030 because of a decline in current projects and lower ore grades per tonne, as well as drought in Chile, the world's largest producer, and floods in Indonesia and the Congo.
Energy and China: Higher oil prices are affecting production costs and monetary-policy decisions, while slowing manufacturing in China, the world's largest copper consumer, is the biggest concern on the demand side.
Price fluctuations during the year
Key milestones for copper prices
Early March: Contracts came under sharp downward pressure amid concerns about global inflation and expectations that central banks would keep interest rates high. Copper fell to around 12000 dollars a tonne on fears over the effects of the energy shock.
June: Copper resumed its rise, approaching 13400 dollars a tonne after the US-Iran ceasefire was announced.
August and September: 3-month copper contracts on the London Metal Exchange touched new record highs of about 14500 dollars a tonne, with momentum continuing during the current September.
Copper's moves over several months coincided with the escalation of the US tariff war and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, as well as disruptions to shipping and energy supplies through the Strait of Hormuz. The article attributes the latest rise to tight supplies outside the United States, oil prices climbing above 100 dollars a barrel, and a widening price gap between the US market and the London Metal Exchange, which further tightened supply conditions outside the United States.
