Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remained severely restricted during July and August 2026, with no signs of a broad and sustained recovery, according to an update published by the World Trade Organization and AXSMarine on September 21, 2026. The disruption continues to pressure flows of oil, liquefied natural gas, fertilizers and agricultural commodities linked to the vital waterway.
Commodity flows below normal levels
Data from the Strait of Hormuz trade tracker showed that shipments of crude oil, liquefied natural gas and fertilizer-related commodities recorded limited and uneven activity in late June and early July before momentum weakened again. Fertilizer exports remained intermittent and markedly below levels seen a year earlier.
Shipments of agricultural products arriving at Gulf ports were relatively more resilient during July and August, but remained volatile and below historical levels, according to the World Trade Organization. These flows include grain and food products on which regional markets depend, while restrictions on vessel movements are increasing transit times and logistics costs.
Fertilizers transmit the shock to food
The United Nations Trade and Development estimated that about one-third of global seaborne fertilizer trade, equivalent to about 16 million tonnes, passes through the strait. This makes shipping disruption a factor affecting the availability of urea, ammonia and sulfur, all key inputs for fertilizer production and agricultural crops.
The International Energy Agency said the closure of the strait had restricted flows of ammonia, urea and sulfur, as some production capacity was disrupted and gas prices rose. This led to urea prices doubling between January and May 2026 and increased fertilizer production costs globally.
Wider risks for global markets
The impact of disruption in Hormuz extends to economies that do not import directly from the Gulf, as buyers seek alternative suppliers and shipping routes, transmitting price, freight and insurance pressures to other markets. Higher fertilizer and energy costs are also raising the cost of farming, food production and energy-intensive industries.
The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization warned that a prolonged crisis could become a systemic shock to the agrifood sector, with a severe food-price crisis potentially emerging over a period of 6 to 12 months. This would result from the combined effects of fertilizer shortages and higher energy and transport costs on farmers' decisions about planted areas and crops.
