The US midterm elections scheduled for November 3 have become part of the Trump administration’s calculations over the level of escalation with Iran, amid fears that the war and higher energy prices could hurt Republicans’ prospects, despite the president’s public denials that the vote is influencing his decisions toward Tehran.
On September 2, Trump responded to a question about the elections’ impact on his decisions by saying: “First of all, I’m not running. My party is running, and I’m going to help my party.” A week later, he predicted the war would end as soon as the elections were over and accused Iran of trying to influence their results.
Trump aides favor calming the conflict before the elections
Reuters cited four people familiar with administration discussions as saying Trump’s senior aides are pushing to prevent an escalation of the war before the vote, in an effort to limit potential Republican losses. A White House official said: “We are keeping the pressure on Iran,” adding: “But November is a priority.”
According to the sources, White House officials may consider increasing military action after the vote, but a return to a full-scale conflict is not certain and no decision has been made. Reuters reported that Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio support keeping the conflict relatively calm until the elections.
White House spokeswoman Olivia Wiles, meanwhile, defended Trump’s policy, saying he had “destroyed Iran’s military capabilities” and that he “will never allow Iran to have a nuclear weapon.” Concerns about the political repercussions had emerged since the start of the war.
In March, Reuters cited two senior White House officials and a Republican close to the administration as saying senior aides had warned Trump before the strikes that escalation would be difficult to contain and could tie the administration’s political fate to unpredictable outcomes. They believed the potential electoral impact would not be immediate, but would take shape gradually depending on the war’s duration, the scale of the response, the number of American casualties and the conflict’s effect on gasoline prices.
Iran bets on energy costs and electoral pressure
Analysts say Tehran understands the sensitivity of the electoral timing, particularly because pressure on the Strait of Hormuz affects energy prices. Thomas Juneau, a political science professor at the University of Ottawa, said Iran sees an opportunity to “exploit the United States’ weakness and vulnerability.”
Sanam Vakil of Chatham House said Tehran believes pressure on Hormuz and threats to expand the disruption could raise the political and economic cost of a new crisis in the Middle East ahead of the elections. Researcher Ali Alfoneh said Iran cannot defeat the United States militarily, but hopes to weaken Trump politically by keeping gasoline prices high and associating his administration with a prolonged war.
Hussein Mohbi, a spokesman for the Revolutionary Guard, put forward demands to end the war, including the withdrawal of Israeli forces from southern Lebanon and the release of about $24 billion in frozen Iranian assets. Public opinion data are heightening concerns within the administration. A Reuters-Ipsos poll in late August showed that 31% of Americans supported the war, while about 63% opposed it.
The continuing war intensifies public and military pressure
Nonetheless, Trump told Fox News host Laura Ingraham in an interview that he “doesn’t believe in the word regret,” adding: “If I had to do the same thing again, I would do exactly what I did.” Lowering escalation before the elections does not mean the war is nearing an end.
Reuters cited The Wall Street Journal as reporting that Vance, Rubio and senior advisers had warned Trump that Iran might continue resisting US pressure and that the conflict could extend beyond January 2029. Washington is also facing military constraints as the fighting continues.
According to Reuters, the US military has used up its stockpile of some precision missiles. Army, Navy and Air Force leaders also warned Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth in a written assessment that prolonging the war was unsustainable and could weaken force readiness in other theaters. At this stage, the administration prefers increasing economic pressure in an effort to extract concessions from Iran.
Regional developments increase shipping and energy pressure
Regional developments are also affecting the course of the war and energy markets. Saudi Arabia temporarily halted the East-West pipeline as a precaution after an attack reported on Friday. In recent months, it had carried between 4 million and 5 million barrels per day, equivalent to about 4% to 5% of global supplies.
Four Yemeni government sources said the Houthis took control on Friday of Mayyun Island at the entrance to the Red Sea, adding Bab al-Mandab to the shipping and energy pressures linked to the war.
Brent crude surpassed $100 a barrel on September 9 for the first time since July, leaving the conflict’s end tied to developments on the ground, economic pressure and the parties’ ability to bear its cost.
