SovEcon, a consultancy, expects combined wheat exports from Russia and Ukraine to reach about 8 million tonnes in the first three months of the 2026-2027 season, compared with 16.2 million tonnes a year earlier and a five-year average of 18.2 million tonnes, reducing supplies available to the global market by about 8.2 million tonnes compared with last season.
Russian exports at their lowest level since 2010-2011
SovEcon estimated Russian wheat exports at about 5.4 million tonnes in the first three months of the 2026-2027 season, down 53% from 11.5 million tonnes in the same period of the previous season.
The projected volume is 58% below the five-year average of 12.9 million tonnes, making it the lowest first-quarter figure since the 2010-2011 season.
In Ukraine, the company expects wheat exports to total about 2.6 million tonnes between July and September, compared with 4.7 million tonnes a year earlier and a five-year average of 5.2 million tonnes, putting exports for the period at their lowest level since the 2012-2013 season.
The 2026-2027 wheat marketing season runs from July 2026 to June 2027, and the estimates for the first three months cover the period from last July through the end of the current September.
Weekly decline in Ukrainian grain exports
Ukraine's weekly grain exports fell 9% between Sept. 10 and Sept. 16 compared with the previous week, according to Ukrainian agricultural consultancy APK-Inform.
Combined exports of wheat, corn and barley stood at 270.2 thousand tonnes during the week. Corn exports fell 18% to 58.5 thousand tonnes, while wheat exports rose 1.2% to 206.4 thousand tonnes.
Alternative routes provide limited offset
The volumes that the global market could lose are equivalent to nearly half the usual monthly volume of global wheat trade compared with last year, and about 60% of the usual monthly volume when measured against the five-year average, according to SovEcon estimates.
The company said alternative export routes could offset only a limited portion of the decline. Russia relies primarily on its ports on the Baltic Sea, as well as terminals in Latvia and Lithuania, while Ukraine depends on the Danube River and overland routes.
The additional capacity of these routes is estimated at between 0.7 million and 1.3 million tonnes of grain per month for each country, compared with capacity of about 5 million tonnes per month at the major Odesa ports and about 6 million tonnes per month at Russian terminals on the Black Sea and Sea of Azov.
According to the company, alternative routes can partially ease export disruptions but cannot replace the capacity of the southern ports, amid the absence of a clear path toward restoring safe navigation in the Black Sea.
