A review being conducted by the OPEC+ alliance to help determine oil production quotas for member countries in 2027 has been delayed after the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran disrupted projects to expand production capacity in the Middle East, according to two informed sources. One of them expected the review to be completed by mid-November.
Capacity assessment and 2027 quotas
The OPEC+ alliance, which includes members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and non-OPEC allies led by Russia, had ordered a review of the production capacities of all member countries and the setting of 2027 quotas, with the process due to be completed by the end of September 2026. But the two sources said the deadline had already passed.
OPEC said at its previous meeting in June that it was «important to complete the assessment of the maximum sustainable production capacity of all member countries, to be used as a reference for baseline production levels in 2027».
The U.S. consulting firm DeGolyer and MacNaughton is working on production-capacity estimates for OPEC+ member countries, except Russia, Iran and Venezuela, according to sources who spoke in late 2025, because the three countries are subject to U.S. sanctions.
One of the sources said DeGolyer and MacNaughton would not submit its report to OPEC before mid-November, a timing that would allow the alliance to take the review’s findings into account ahead of its next meeting late next month.
Delayed expansion projects complicate assessment
The war in the Middle East delayed projects that had been expected to increase production capacity in some OPEC+ countries, complicating estimates of the amount of oil those countries could produce in the future. The sources said some countries had not submitted the data required for the review, without identifying them.
The review aims to provide an independent and updated assessment of the volumes each member country can produce sustainably, a key criterion in negotiations over production targets. Delays to projects designed to increase production capacity could affect the assumptions underpinning the assessments and the member countries’ future quotas.
Countries whose production capacity is shown to have declined in the review could face pressure to cut their quotas, while those whose capacity has increased could seek larger quotas. Sources said in June that Iraq was seeking a larger quota and had considered the idea of withdrawing from OPEC.
Oil prices and Kuwait’s output
Oil prices jumped by more than $4 a barrel on Thursday after a report said the United States would send more troops and another aircraft carrier to the Middle East. The move came as China suspended exports of oil products, raising concerns that a global fuel shortage could worsen.
The Brent crude contract for December delivery settled at $102.31 a barrel on Thursday, up $4.28, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose $2.45 to $92.87 a barrel.
Separately, an informed source said on Friday that Kuwait’s crude oil output fell by about 200,000 barrels per day in September from the previous month to an average of 1.77 million barrels per day, as exports were hit by an increase in attacks in the Gulf and a shortage of tankers.
Kuwait’s output had reached about 2.5 million barrels per day in February, before the war began. The September decline came despite signs of a broader recovery in Gulf oil shipments following disruptions caused by the war on Iran.
Exports from some producers, including Saudi Arabia, recovered, but the recovery was uneven, as a shortage of tankers, higher shipping risks and continued Iranian attacks in the Gulf are still restricting oil flows from some countries.
Kuwait’s lower output in September coincided with a decline in its exports. Preliminary shipping data from Kpler showed that exports of crude and oil condensates averaged about 740,000 barrels per day in September, down from 1.2 million barrels per day in August.
