The International Monetary Fund said on July 15, 2026, that the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz during the US-Israeli war on Iran had blocked about 20 million barrels per day of crude oil and refined products, equivalent to one-fifth of global consumption, while crude prices stabilized within a range of $90 to $100 a barrel after their initial surge.
Inventories and production limit the price shock
The fund said withdrawals from inventories, increased production and the use of refineries outside the Gulf region, along with weaker demand, had limited the rise in prices after supply disruptions. It warned that the market’s available safety margin was narrowing as some inventories were depleted, underscoring the importance of a rapid recovery in supplies.
The heads of the International Energy Agency, the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank Group and the World Trade Organization said in a joint statement dated May 29, 2026, that the war had caused significant and uneven effects on energy supplies, food security and economic activity, with the most vulnerable countries facing pressure from higher fuel and fertilizer prices and uncertainty.
Growth holds up as inflation accelerates
The International Monetary Fund kept its forecasts for global economic growth unchanged at 3% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027 in its July update, saying the global economy had absorbed the shock of the war better than initially feared. At the same time, it raised its forecast for headline global inflation to 4.7% in 2026, pointing to a halt in the disinflationary trend that began in early 2024.
The fund’s estimates were based on market pricing on June 10, which pointed to an average of $89 a barrel in 2026. It said the supply shock caused by the war was being offset by an economic boost from investment in artificial intelligence, with the crisis having varying effects on energy exporters and importers.
