Syria has raised fuel prices since September 13, with the price of a litre of mazut (diesel) increasing by 40% and 95-octane gasoline by about 28.3% from the previous tariff. The Energy Ministry attributed the move to higher costs for purchasing and transporting refined products, as well as disruptions to refining and supply.
Over a longer period, the price of 95-octane gasoline has risen by about 86% since February, while the price of mazut has more than doubled from its level at the time, compared with an increase of about 44% in Brent crude. This reflects the impact of factors beyond movements in crude oil prices.
Refining shutdown increases Syria’s reliance on imports
The Energy Ministry linked the price increases to the shutdown of the Baniyas refinery for extensive maintenance and rehabilitation work after, according to the ministry, it had reached a point where continued operation was no longer possible without risks. The shutdown removed part of Syria’s domestic refining capacity and increased the need for imported refined products.
Abdel Hamid Salat, director of the ministry’s media department, said the Homs refinery was operating at a capacity of about 30,000 barrels per day, while the country currently imports about 74% of its diesel needs and 81% of its gasoline needs. This leaves the market dependent on the availability of fuel abroad and the costs of purchasing and shipping it.
The ministry says some Syrian crude is heavy and not fully compatible with the capacity of the available refineries, meaning the country may export some crude while importing fuel. The pricing mechanism is also based on the cost of securing the refined product until it reaches the market, rather than on the price of oil alone.
Refining and transport costs widen gap with crude
The final price of fuel includes the cost of crude, refining, transport, storage and distribution, as well as taxes or government subsidies, depending on each market’s policy. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, crude accounted for about 51% of the average monthly retail diesel price in the United States between 2004 and 2025.
Traders measure the relationship between crude and refined products through the “crack spread,” the difference between the price of fuel and the benchmark crude price. A widening spread indicates that fuel has become more valuable relative to its feedstock, but it does not represent a refinery’s net profit because of energy, operating and maintenance costs and differences in the prices of the products yielded by a single barrel.
Data from the International Energy Agency showed that refineries processed about 81.4 million barrels per day worldwide in August 2026, down by roughly 4.2 million barrels from the same month a year earlier. The decline affected the Middle East, Russia and Asian countries that import crude.
In the same month, exports of refined products and liquefied petroleum gas from the Gulf fell by about 60% from February. Officials at energy trading company Vitol and oil refiner Phillips 66 also warned in September that available capacity to make up the shortfall was limited, as refineries were affected by the Russian war in Ukraine and the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran.
Diesel leads supply pressures
Diesel is used for more than private cars: it powers trucks and agricultural machinery and is closely linked to heating fuel because of their similar properties. Simultaneous demand for heating, transport and agriculture puts additional pressure on supplies when production or exports decline.
According to the International Energy Agency, combined net exports of diesel and gasoil from the Gulf and Russia fell by about 1.6 million barrels per day in August from February, when they accounted for roughly 45% of global seaborne trade in these products.
Prices of diesel and gasoil in the U.S. market exceeded $200 per barrel at the beginning of September, up 94% from levels before the war with Iran, meaning before the end of February.
Refineries cannot shift all their output to diesel because a barrel produces multiple refined products, while increasing the share of lighter products requires additional processes and specialized equipment. In its September forecast, the Energy Information Administration projected that U.S. distillate inventories, which include diesel and heating oil, would fall below 100 million barrels in the same month and remain below the five-year low for most of 2027.
In Syria, treasury revenues reached about $2.7 billion in the first half of 2026, compared with spending of $3.7 billion, leaving a deficit of about $1 billion, according to Finance Ministry data. Spending on subsidies and social security amounted to $315 million.
The Energy Ministry said the price increase was aimed at addressing the gap between the cost of securing refined products and their selling price in order to finance subsequent shipments. In other markets, Japan allocated 800 billion yen from its reserves, equivalent to about $5 billion, to fund subsidies aimed at limiting increases in gasoline prices.
In Hungary, the government announced on September 11 compensation of 20,000 forints, equivalent to about $64, for eligible households using diesel-powered cars, along with tax rebates for farmers. It avoided imposing a fuel-price cap for fear of supply shortages.
Rising diesel prices feed into transport and goods costs
Higher diesel prices spread to other sectors through the cost of transporting crops, raw materials and finished products. In Syria, a taxi driver said passengers had objected to higher fares after fuel prices rose and expressed concern that the increase would drive up the prices of other goods.
In the United States, fuel surcharges for rail transport reached 48 cents per car-mile during the second week of September, up 153% year on year, according to Agriculture Department data. The surcharges accounted for 11% of the cost of transporting corn and soybeans by rail, compared with 5% a year earlier.
A survey conducted by the International Road Transport Union in June showed that diesel costs had risen by about 14% in the European Union and 40% in the United States, with smaller increases passed through to transport prices, indicating that transport companies absorbed part of the rise.
Syria’s Energy Ministry links improved supplies to the restoration of refining capacity, the rehabilitation of fields and transport lines, stronger storage capacity and the diversification of supply sources. Globally, the U.S. Energy Information Administration expects Middle Eastern production to improve as flows through the Strait of Hormuz increase and alternative routes are used, while some export restrictions remain in place through the end of the year and output stays below pre-conflict averages through the second quarter of 2027.
