The International Atomic Energy Agency on Monday, 14 September 2026, raised its forecast for nuclear power growth for the sixth consecutive year, projecting global operating capacity to reach 1,284 gigawatts electric by 2060 in the high case, equivalent to 3.4 times its level at the end of 2025.
The agency’s annual report showed that global operating nuclear capacity stood at 377.1 gigawatts electric at the end of 2025, spread across 413 operable reactors. The high case projects capacity reaching 1,045 gigawatts electric by 2050, compared with a previous forecast of 992 gigawatts electric.
Low case points to near doubling of capacity
In the low case, the agency expects global nuclear capacity to rise to 641 gigawatts electric by 2050 and then to 696 gigawatts electric by 2060, compared with last year’s forecast of 561 gigawatts electric for 2050.
The low case assumes that current market, technology and resource trends will continue, with laws, policies and regulations remaining largely unchanged. The high case takes countries’ plans to expand nuclear power into account.
Growing role for small modular reactors
The agency expects small modular reactor capacity to reach 284 gigawatts electric by 2060 in the high case, representing 28% of the total 1,017 gigawatts electric in newly added capacity. This would equate to 946 reactors if the average unit had a capacity of 300 megawatts electric, or 1,136 reactors at an average of 250 megawatts electric.
In the low case, the capacity of these reactors could reach 120 gigawatts electric by 2060, equivalent to 400 units with an average capacity of 300 megawatts electric or 480 units with an average of 250 megawatts electric.
Investment and reactor life extensions
IAEA Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi said realizing this potential would require investment in new nuclear capacity and extending reactor lifetimes, as nuclear power takes on a growing role in meeting the world’s rising electricity needs.
According to the agency’s estimates, 70% of currently operating nuclear capacity will remain in service in 2060 in the high case, while the low case assumes the retirement of about two-thirds of currently operating units. This would increase the need to build new capacity to replace reactors taken out of service.
