Moscow is expanding its capacity to produce tens of thousands of attack drones by establishing a new carbon-fibre production line at the Alabuga-Volokno plant, operated by the state-owned Rosatom in Russia’s Republic of Tatarstan. Company plans show that the expansion will provide an additional annual capacity of 500 tonnes of the material used in aerospace and military industries by 2029.
Carbon fibre, which combines light weight with strength, is used to manufacture drone airframes and components. An arms expert estimated that the new capacity could allow the production of around 28,000 additional attack drones each year, representing a 78% increase in production of this type of weapon.
The category includes drones used in an attack targeting a passenger train near the Polish border in September, as well as in other attacks that killed dozens of Ukrainian civilians. Ukrainian estimates indicate that Russia can currently produce more than 36,000 Geran suicide drones annually.
Sanctions and the plant’s role in the defence industry
The Alabuga-Volokno plant and its parent company, Rosatom’s UMATEX advanced materials division, are subject to sanctions imposed by Britain, the United States and several other Western governments. The plant plays a key role in Russia’s industrial and military supply chain for producing composite materials used in aviation and defence manufacturing.
Earlier in 2026, the plant received a concealed shipment containing 46 tonnes of chemicals intended for carbon-fibre production, sent by a Chinese state-owned company, according to shipping documents and internal customs records belonging to Rosatom. The Chinese embassy in Washington said it was unaware of Russian expansion plans linked to drone production.
It said that China “strictly regulates exports of dual-use materials in accordance with the law”, referring to materials that can be used for civilian and military purposes. The project documents include commercial data, engineering designs and construction plans collected by Russian sources on behalf of the Ukrainian Security and Cooperation Centre, which is close to the Ukrainian government.
The documents detail the plant’s expansion, along with plans for the equipment and facilities to be built as part of the project. A US official familiar with the matter said the US House of Representatives’ Select Committee on China had reviewed the documents and concluded that they were authentic. A Ukrainian official, who requested anonymity, also confirmed that the Ukrainian government had verified the documents.
Construction begins on new carbon-fibre line
In May, the Russian government approved Rosatom’s plan to establish a new production line at the Alabuga-Volokno plant, dedicated to producing fibres and chemical filaments, with capacity of up to 500 tonnes of carbon fibre annually. Satellite imagery taken between May and July showed land designated for the expansion being prepared next to the existing plant in Tatarstan ahead of construction.
Other images from August showed work beginning on the foundations of the new plant. Arms expert David Albright said completing the project on schedule by 2027 would require construction work to proceed at a rapid pace.
Drones and the depletion of Ukrainian air defences
Experts say drones give Russia the ability to launch large-scale attacks from multiple locations against targets deep inside Ukrainian territory, while also enabling it to exhaust Ukrainian air-defence systems. Serhii Kuzan, head of the Ukrainian Security and Cooperation Centre, warned that the expansion of the Alabuga facilities and affiliated companies posed a challenge not only to Ukraine but also a long-term security threat to Europe as a whole.
The Alabuga-Volokno plant is expected to contribute to meeting these targets. Rosatom documents say the reasons for the expansion include “replacing dual-use imports” and “meeting the needs of Russia’s strategic sectors, including aviation and defence industries, for carbon fibre”.
Albright estimated that operating the plant at full capacity could provide enough carbon fibre to produce the airframes of around 28,000 Shahed 136 aircraft. Russia’s Geran-2 attack drones are based on the Iranian design of the Shahed aircraft. Albright explained that carbon fibre is indispensable in manufacturing these drones, as it is used to reinforce the wings and internal structures, as well as in fuel tanks and engines.
He added that replacing the material would not be easy, as alternatives could increase the aircraft’s weight and reduce its operational efficiency. He said Russia currently does not obtain sufficient quantities of PAN, the precursor material needed to produce high-specification carbon fibre, to meet all its defence needs.
According to this assessment, expanding domestic production is linked to an attempt to address the shortfall and reduce reliance on external supplies. Drones produced at the Alabuga complex have become a central part of Russia’s strategy for targeting Ukrainian forces and civilian infrastructure.
Ukrainian officials called for tighter controls on the supply of sensitive components, stronger enforcement of sanctions and efforts to disrupt logistics supply chains connected to the industrial complex. European concerns are growing over Russia’s continued expansion of its military aviation capabilities as the war in Ukraine continues and there are no signs that it is nearing an end.
These concerns include the possibility that Moscow will retain growing drone-production capabilities even if a political settlement or peace agreement is reached in the future.
