The escalation of clashes between Ethiopian government forces and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front in the north of the country since 23 September has reopened the possibility of the conflict expanding domestically and regionally. A study by Saudi researcher Mohammed bin Munkhir identified three main scenarios for its course: a return to dialogue, continued fighting at a limited level, or increased escalation and regional intervention.
Three possible paths for renewed fighting
The first scenario involves resuming dialogue and de-escalating between the government forces and the front, while retaining the Pretoria Agreement as the political reference for addressing the conflict. This path assumes the resumption of arrangements to disarm the front and gradually reintegrate its fighters, leading to a reduction in the intensity of the clashes and lowering the likelihood of the crisis spreading to neighbouring countries and regions.
The second scenario is based on continued tensions between the Ethiopian government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front if outstanding issues remain unresolved. The study links this possibility to what it describes as “fluctuating control on the ground”, which could lead to repeated clashes in Afar and parts of Amhara, without necessarily turning them into a full-scale war.
Under this scenario, accusations of external intervention may continue without conclusive evidence, alongside rising security and commercial risks around the corridors linked to Djibouti and the Red Sea. These corridors are particularly important to Ethiopia because they connect to transport networks and supply lines serving its regional trade.
The third scenario points to increased regional intervention and a widening scope of the clashes. The study says that renewed fighting, alongside stalled implementation of the Pretoria Agreement and growing political disagreements, could lead to the formation of more cohesive armed alliances confronting the federal government, accompanied by accelerated displacement and the disruption of roads and transport routes.
Under this assessment, the likelihood increases that the crisis’s repercussions will spread from Ethiopia’s interior to the broader security environment in the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea. The impact of this scenario is not limited to military confrontations, but extends to border security, regional trade flows and the safety of supply lines, particularly in areas near roads leading to Djibouti.
The Tigray war and the Pretoria Peace Agreement
The background to the conflict in Tigray lies in the dispute that unfolded between 2020 and 2022 amid disagreements over land and the distribution of powers, as well as competition among political forces and regional groups. The war ended with the signing of the Permanent Cessation of Hostilities Agreement, known as the Pretoria Agreement, in November 2022 under the auspices of the African Union.
The war between the government forces and the People’s Liberation Front during that period led to the deaths of around 600,000 people. The current clashes have therefore revived fears of a renewed civil war, at a time when the security repercussions of Tigray, in northern Ethiopia, extend beyond its local borders to affect stability calculations in the Horn of Africa.
Expanding alliances and regional accusations
The return of fighting coincided with armed groups announcing the formation of a joint alliance against the federal government, while military operations also extended to Amhara and Afar. The developments came amid official Ethiopian positions accusing regional actors, including Eritrea and Egypt, of intervening in the conflict, adding a diplomatic dimension to the internal military crisis.
Ethiopia and Eritrea severed diplomatic relations on Thursday and exchanged accusations of fuelling internal conflicts as fighting continued in northern Ethiopia. Addis Ababa accuses Eritrea of supporting Tigray People’s Liberation Front rebels, while relations between Ethiopia and Egypt have seen reciprocal expulsions of diplomats over the same accusations.
Egypt denied the Ethiopian accusations, stressing that it does not “interfere in the internal affairs of any country” and that “anything else is merely allegations”. Cairo also described what is happening in Tigray as “an internal crisis in which Egypt has no involvement”, in response to Addis Ababa’s statements about its alleged role in the developments.
The study, titled “Armed Groups in Ethiopia: Renewed Conflict and Its Repercussions for Internal Stability and Regional Security”, says the return of fighting exposes the limited ability of the Pretoria Agreement’s arrangements to contain the political and security disputes that have remained unresolved, “without this meaning the end of the agreement’s political framework”.
The study says the clashes have expanded the crisis into a more complex regional dimension, amid strained Ethiopian relations with Eritrea, Sudan and Egypt. The Tigray forces’ increased control over areas in Afar and parts of the north has also heightened the significance of the developments for borders and the trade and security corridors connected to the Red Sea and the Horn of Africa.
The extension of operations into Afar is a key factor in assessing regional risks, given the region’s proximity to trade routes and corridors connected to Djibouti and the Red Sea. This geography places the security of supply lines and trade flows under additional pressure, particularly amid the unstable security situation in the north and the need to monitor the safety of the transport networks on which Ethiopian trade depends.
The study concluded that the developments strengthen Ethiopia’s position in Red Sea security calculations because the conflict zones are linked to trade corridors and transport routes leading to Djibouti and the coast. According to its findings, the internal crisis has become increasingly intertwined with regional security issues, making developments on the ground influential beyond the country’s borders.
The political path will determine the crisis’s future
The study also linked the crisis’s future to the ability of Ethiopian parties to reactivate the political process, address contentious issues within the framework of the Pretoria Agreement and curb military escalation. Despite the limitations of its current arrangements, the agreement remains the available political framework for halting the fighting and completing the disarmament and reintegration of fighters through a gradual process.
According to the study, the reorganisation of the armed opposition reveals a shift in the nature of the conflict following the establishment of the “Ethiopian Popular Forces Alliance for Survival”, which includes groups from different regions and communities. However, political, organisational and geographical differences among its members will remain a factor determining its cohesion and ability to carry out joint military action.
The three scenarios remain linked to the fate of the Pretoria Agreement’s implementation, the course of control on the ground and Ethiopia’s relations with neighbouring countries. A return to dialogue could limit the crisis’s expansion, while unresolved issues are likely to lead to repeated clashes. Meanwhile, the disruption of the political process and the consolidation of armed alliances could bring increased displacement, transport disruptions and the spread of the conflict’s repercussions into Ethiopia’s regional surroundings.
