The 12th anniversary of Ansar Allah’s (the Houthis’) takeover of the Yemeni capital, Sana’a, comes as Yemen enters a new round of fighting on several fronts after four years of relative calm. Government forces have been making moves and military officials have spoken of advancing towards the capital, while the Houthis have made gains on the western coast.
The Houthis’ takeover of Sana’a and the path of expansion
The Houthis took control of Sana’a on 21 September 2014, after limited clashes in some of the city’s neighbourhoods. The shift reshaped Yemen’s political and military landscape and set off a series of consequences that continue 12 years later.
The Houthis emerged from the mountains of Saada Governorate and then fought fierce battles with government forces in Amran Governorate, which borders Sana’a, before reaching the capital. Their advance was accompanied at the time by accusations that former President Ali Abdullah Saleh had colluded with them through forces loyal to him.
The rapprochement between Saleh and the Houthis later became an announced alliance, before Saleh declared in 2017 that he was ending the partnership with the group and entered into a confrontation with it in Sana’a that ended with his death. That confrontation marked the end of the alliance that had helped change the balance of power during the first years of the war. After taking control of Sana’a, the Houthis expanded towards governorates in western, southern and eastern Yemen, but their advance faced resistance from the group’s opponents.
The Yemeni government sought help from the Saudi-led Arab coalition and succeeded in 2015 in retaking control of several governorates, most notably Aden, which it adopted as the country’s temporary capital. Since then, the government and the Houthis have shared control of Yemen, creating two governments, two economies and two education systems.
The division deepened the population’s suffering amid a war that has displaced around five million Yemenis within the country. The Yemeni government describes the Houthis’ seizure of Sana’a as a coup against state institutions and also accuses Iran of supporting the group and supplying it with weapons.
After years of confrontation, the conflict has not been resolved militarily or politically. The government seeks to end what it describes as the coup, while the Houthis are working to consolidate their authority, take control of the entire country and gain legitimacy.
The government controls the southern and eastern governorates, which make up most of Yemen’s territory, while the Houthis hold most of the northern governorates, including Sana’a. The northern areas contain the country’s largest population concentration, adding a demographic dimension to the map of control alongside the capital’s political and military importance.
Military escalation changes the map of influence
This year’s anniversary of the takeover of Sana’a follows an escalation launched by the Houthis around three months ago against the government and Saudi Arabia, under the banner of ending what the group describes as the “siege” imposed on areas under its control. The escalation moved from threats to reciprocal air strikes, then expanded in early September into ground clashes.
The latest ground battles began after the Houthis attacked areas controlled by government forces along the western coast in the governorates of Hudaydah and Taiz. In parallel, the group expanded its attacks by shelling Saudi cities and targeting vessels belonging to the kingdom in the Red Sea, as part of what it calls imposing a maritime blockade on Riyadh. After days of clashes with government forces, the Houthis achieved a breakthrough that changed the map of military influence.
The group took control of the cities of Hays and Khawkha, the government’s last strongholds in Hudaydah Governorate, as well as four districts in Taiz Governorate, most notably the city of Mokha, reaching the Bab al-Mandab area and Mayyun Island. At the same time, government forces launched military operations aimed at retaking al-Bayda Governorate in central Yemen.
The governorate is strategically important because it is geographically connected to eight governorates, including Sana’a, linking the course of the fighting there to areas around the capital and several other fronts. Government forces also launched an offensive in al-Jawf Governorate in the north of the country and announced that they had taken control of areas and positions there. However, the city of al-Hazm, the governorate’s capital, has remained under Houthi control since March 2020.
Al-Jawf’s importance stems from its location along the Saudi border and its proximity to five key governorates, foremost among them Sana’a and Saada, the Houthis’ main stronghold. The oil-rich governorate of Ma’rib is also witnessing fierce battles between the two sides.
The Houthis have been trying to take control of the governorate for years, but their previous attempts failed, the fiercest coming in 2021. Ma’rib remains one of the conflict’s main fronts because of its oil resources and its position within the government’s map of influence. The escalation inside Yemen and its surrounding area coincides with the war between the United States and Iran.
Government statements on retaking Sana’a
In this context, the Yemeni government accuses the Houthis of pursuing an Iranian agenda and attempting to replicate Tehran’s experience of controlling the Strait of Hormuz, as the fighting extends to the Red Sea and maritime routes near Yemen. As the fighting intensified, Major General Samir al-Sabri, the Yemeni defence minister’s adviser for international cooperation, said in comments to Yemeni state television on 7 September that the decision to liberate Sana’a had been taken.
Al-Sabri said, “The matter has been settled and there is a surprise we will not reveal now.” This was preceded by a statement from Yemen’s Defence Minister, Lieutenant General Dr Taher al-Aqili, in February, in which he said the direction of operations was moving towards the capital, Sana’a.
The statements have taken on added significance as the military operations carried out by government forces in al-Bayda, al-Jawf and Ma’rib have expanded. Sana’a saw drones flying over the city last Friday, while explosions were heard and anti-aircraft fire and gunfire were reported in several neighbourhoods, according to Anadolu Agency and Yemeni media outlets.
Yemeni media reports later spoke of attacks carried out by government forces using drones against Houthi military and security facilities. The government did not announce an operation inside Sana’a, while Houthi military spokesman Yahya Saree said his group had thwarted what he called “criminal attempts in Sana’a” and accused Saudi Arabia of being behind them, without providing further details.
Saree added that those attempts “will not go unanswered”, before the Houthis later announced that they had carried out an attack against targets in the Saudi capital. These developments place the anniversary of the Houthis’ takeover of Sana’a in a different context from previous years, as it coincides with a multi-front escalation that could redraw the map of control.
Factors behind the Houthis’ continued control
The Yemen file also intersects with regional developments and the involvement of multiple external parties, given the importance of the country’s location overlooking key routes for international maritime trade. Yemeni political analyst Yassin al-Tamimi believes several factors enabled the Houthis to take control of Sana’a and remain there to this day.
He said the first factor was the presence of a political doctrine within the hierarchy of the legitimate authority that allowed the Houthis a role in dismantling the political and moral structure of the authority produced by the 11 February 2011 revolution and weakening the political forces that carried it. Al-Tamimi added that, in his view, this coincided with international pressure to settle the legacy of the Arab Spring in Yemen.
He said the second factor was linked to the actions of the late President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi, accusing him of “betraying the popular mandate and the constitutional responsibility he had assumed, believing that he was laying the foundations for his authority away from the influence of those he called centres of power”.
Al-Tamimi also pointed to the cover provided by a range of political, military and tribal forces for the Houthis’ moves towards Sana’a, with some of them taking part in the battles that ended with the group taking control of state institutions and large areas. He included among the reasons what he described as exaggerated fears among regional powers towards Islamists.
Al-Tamimi believes that retaking Sana’a remains possible if the military forces unite under a single fighting doctrine centred on restoring a united republican Yemeni state. He linked this to those forces obtaining the necessary military resources, as well as air cover and fire superiority.
