Seven armed and political groups in Ethiopia announced on Sunday the formation of a new alliance aimed at ousting Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government and establishing an inclusive transitional administration, as security unrest expands from Gambella near the South Sudanese border to fronts in Oromia and Amhara, amid renewed tensions in the Tigray region during 2026.
Gambella violence precedes alliance announcement
The alliance announcement followed violence in the Gambella area on 18 September, which killed 12 people and injured dozens. Médecins Sans Frontières said its health centre in Kule received 88 injured and affected people, explaining that eight had died before reaching the centre, while four others died upon arrival.
No party has been identified as responsible for the outbreak of fighting in Gambella, the latest episode in a series of security disturbances spread across several Ethiopian regions. The area is particularly sensitive because of its proximity to South Sudan, as well as its demographic composition and the fact that it hosts more than 400,000 refugees, most of them from South Sudan.
Gambella has experienced clashes between local groups for years, with community disputes intertwined with competition over land and resources. A 2025 report by the Rift Valley Institute linked the escalation of conflict in the area to competition over economic resources, in addition to the impact of refugee flows on existing local balances.
Oromia and Amhara fronts add to the pressure
The fighting in Ethiopia is not limited to Gambella. Government forces in Oromia have been engaged in a conflict with the Oromo Liberation Army since 2018. In Amhara region, the armed Fano group has been involved in a confrontation with the federal government since 2023, adding another front to a security landscape with multiple parties and deep-rooted causes.
As fighting continues in Oromia and Amhara, tensions persist in Gambella and security concerns return to Tigray, groups with different political and military backgrounds are seeking a common framework to confront the central government. The formation of the seven-member alliance gives these scattered conflicts a new possibility of coordination, after they had for long unfolded on separate fronts with differing local aims.
Seven groups join the new framework
The alliance comprises the Tigray People’s Liberation Front, the Fano National Movement in Amhara and the Oromo Liberation Army, along with four smaller groups: the Ogaden National Liberation Front, the Afar Revolutionary Democratic Front, the Benshangul Peoples’ Liberation Movement and the Gamuz Peoples’ Democratic Movement.
The significance of the new formation lies in bringing together, for the first time, forces from Tigray, Amhara, Oromia and other Ethiopian regions within a single political framework, despite differences in their trajectories, demands and experiences of conflict. These groups have fought in different confrontations, and some had previously been in a camp opposed to forces with which they are now allied.
The participating groups said the alliance seeks to establish a transitional government and draw up a charter addressing security, humanitarian, economic and political issues. However, announcing these objectives does not mean that the seven groups have become a unified military force, as each group still retains its own agenda, demands and local context, distinct from those of the other parties.
Tigray war exposes contradictions within emerging alliance
The contradictions among the alliance’s components are particularly clear in the background to the Tigray war, which broke out in November 2020 between the federal government and forces of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front. The war unfolded amid a broader power struggle within Ethiopia’s ethnically based federal system.
For decades, the Tigray People’s Liberation Front had been the dominant force in Ethiopia’s ruling coalition, before Abiy Ahmed came to power in 2018. After two years of fighting, the war ended with an agreement to cease hostilities, signed in Pretoria in November 2022 under the auspices of the African Union.
But the Pretoria agreement did not resolve all outstanding issues between the parties, including land, security arrangements and the political status of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front. As tensions returned to the region during 2026, fears grew that fighting could resume, alongside continued armed conflicts in other regions.
During the Tigray war, Fano was in the opposing camp, fighting alongside federal and Eritrean forces against Tigrayan forces. But the situation changed after the war ended, and Fano itself entered into an armed confrontation with the federal government in Amhara region in 2023. Fano’s conflict with the government began after the authorities took steps to reorganise the regional special forces.
The group that supported federal forces during the Tigray war thus became part of an alliance including its former adversary, the Tigray People’s Liberation Front, in an attempt to coordinate positions against the central government. The shift reflects the central paradox of the new alliance, as forces that fought different wars and previously stood in opposing camps attempt to build common ground.
Nevertheless, the formation of the political framework in itself offers no evidence that its members have overcome their historical or local disputes, or that they can unify their structures and field operations. These developments leave Ethiopia facing a security map that goes beyond simply having multiple fronts.
In Gambella, violence is linked to local disputes and competition over resources in an area hosting large numbers of refugees. Meanwhile, the confrontations in Oromia and Amhara stem from different conflicts with the government, while issues from the Tigray war remain unresolved in full. The alliance’s impact will depend on its ability to turn disparate regional conflicts into broader political or military coordination among government opponents in different areas.
If the participating groups manage to overcome their differences, this could add a new dimension to Ethiopia’s conflict. But continued divergence in agendas and demands could leave the alliance as a fragile framework that reflects the complexity of the situation more than it changes its course.
