Seven armed Ethiopian organisations announced on Sunday the formation of the Ethiopian Popular Forces Alliance for Existence, with the aim of removing the federal government led by the Prosperity Party and establishing a transitional government. The move brings together ethnic and political forces that until recently stood on opposing sides in the conflicts that have shaken the country.
The alliance includes the Fano Amhara National Movement, the Tigray People’s Liberation Front, the Oromo Liberation Army, the Ogaden National Liberation Front, the Afar National Unity Revolutionary Front, the Benishangul People’s Liberation Movement and the Gumuz People’s Democratic Movement. Zemini Kasse, head of the Fano Amhara National Movement, read the founding statement on Tigray TV.
The alliance’s aims and its members’ conflicting pasts
According to Constance Dier, a journalist specialising in Ethiopian affairs, the seven organisations have drawn closer because they share a desire to overthrow the government of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, as well as an intention to establish a transitional government in which they would all be represented. However, this common goal brings together parties that have fought direct military confrontations against one another in recent years.
In the war that lasted from 2020 to 2022, the Tigray People’s Liberation Front fought the federal government, Eritrean forces and Fano militias acting together. The alliance map later changed, and Addis Ababa began accusing its former allies, Eritrea and Fano, of supporting the Tigray People’s Liberation Front, reflecting continuing shifts in relations between local and regional forces.
The transitional phase and its proposed charter
The founding statement set two objectives for the transitional phase. The first was to “preserve the survival of the peoples, safeguard the country’s security and stop all wars”, and the second was to hold “an inclusive and participatory popular and constitutional dialogue”. The announced plan provides for the transitional government to be administered under a “transitional charter”, a temporary document that would replace the constitution until a permanent agreement is reached on the political system.
The statement also called on federal army soldiers and commanders to join what it described as the “struggle”. Despite these stated objectives, the alliance’s structure and programme remain subject to questions. Dier said the political direction of the government the bloc pledges to form is unclear, and that the programme it might adopt if it comes to power remains vague.
Uncertainty over leadership and the Oromo Liberation Army’s position
The statement also does not specify the alliance’s leadership structure or how power would be distributed among the organisations that signed it. A contradiction also emerged over the Oromo Liberation Army’s position. On 17 September, three days before the alliance was announced, the organisation described the emerging cooperation as a “procedural consensus”, meaning agreement on a mechanism for working rather than on the political substance.
It said it was “not a party to or component of the emerging alliance”, and that none of the participating parties had been “given a mandate to negotiate, settle or predetermine the fundamental political questions of the Ethiopian people”, according to Ethiopia’s Addis Standard newspaper. Nevertheless, the Oromo Liberation Army’s name appeared among the seven organisations that signed the founding statement.
Warnings of the government’s growing isolation and internal conflict
Dier believes the alliance’s announcement could further isolate Addis Ababa domestically, particularly amid indications that a new war with the Tigray People’s Liberation Front could break out. She described the situation as “like a powder keg capable of exploding at any moment”, but ruled out an immediate threat to the government, noting that it still enjoys international support.
Kjetil Tronvoll, a regional affairs expert at Oslo New University, expressed reservations about the alliance’s ability to endure. He said the rebel organisations were engaged in “a war of attrition, and I am not sure they will be able to sustain such a war”.
He added, however, that coordinating these forces under a military leadership could make a difference, explaining that the government could find itself facing four or five potential fronts, which could pose a challenge. The federal authorities have not announced a position on the alliance, while Agence France-Presse reported that the government had not responded to its request for comment.
On 7 July, Abiy Ahmed told the House of Peoples’ Representatives, in response to talk of a regional alliance against his country: “We have not an iota of fear for Ethiopia’s sovereignty from Eritrea, the Tigray People’s Liberation Front and Sudan, even if others are added.” The concerns extend beyond the internal conflict to the possibility that the disputes could turn into a confrontation with regional ramifications.
Dier believes the greatest danger lies in the regionalisation of the conflicts, at a time when Ethiopia, Sudan and Eritrea are trading accusations of supporting rebel groups operating against the governments of all three countries. She also believes that developments in the Bab el-Mandeb area could give Eritrea greater regional weight and a pivotal role in the course of the Ethiopian crisis.
In October 2025, Ethiopia’s Foreign Ministry accused the Tigray People’s Liberation Front and Eritrea of “financing, mobilising and directing” Fano forces in North Wollo. Eritrean Information Minister Yemane Gebremeskel responded to the accusations, describing them as “cheap and vile lies”.
In the Sudanese context, the Sudanese army accuses Addis Ababa of providing a rear base for the Rapid Support Forces, as well as transferring heavy weapons and troops to border areas, according to the Sudan Tribune newspaper.
The new alliance was established 35 years after the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front, led by the Tigray People’s Liberation Front and involving Amhara, Oromo and southern groups, succeeded in overthrowing the regime of former president Mengistu Haile Mariam in 1991.
