Seven Ethiopian opposition and armed groups have announced the formation of a new alliance to confront Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government, bringing together under one framework forces operating in different parts of the country, as fighting continues in Amhara and Oromia and tensions grow between the federal government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front in northern Ethiopia.
Emmanuel Assefa, deputy leader of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front, said the alliance aims to “overthrow the government and facilitate the establishment of a transitional government”. He told Agence France-Presse that the alliance includes seven armed organisations, among them Tigrayan forces, Amhara Fano nationalists and the Oromo Liberation Army.
Armed moves increase pressure on Ethiopian government
The announcement follows moves in August and this month, when several armed groups revealed efforts to coordinate their activities against the federal government. These efforts coincide with ongoing clashes in the Amhara and Oromia regions, alongside rising tensions in Tigray, broadening the security and political pressures facing the Ethiopian government.
In the north of the country, tensions between the federal government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front have risen again after both sides deployed forces near the region. The moves have raised fears of renewed fighting, which ended with the signing of the Pretoria Agreement in 2022, prompting questions about the accord’s ability to withstand new military and political developments.
Internal conflicts put pressure on regional water issues
Egyptian military and strategic affairs expert Major General Ayman Abdel Mohsen believes Ethiopia’s internal conflicts are directly affecting the Nile River issue and Egypt’s position. He said internal crises were weakening the Addis Ababa government’s ability to manoeuvre politically and regionally, and could also affect its ability to continue unilateral steps linked to regional issues.
Abdel Mohsen said the widening unrest could prompt the Ethiopian government to focus its political, security and military efforts on restoring internal stability, which could reduce its ability to manage major regional issues.
He added that the federal government’s preoccupation with the conflicts also limits its financial and political capacity to pursue new water projects or build additional dams on the Blue Nile.
He said the mounting pressure inside Ethiopia could represent a strategic opportunity for Egypt to strengthen its negotiating position, or to adopt an approach based on cautious calm and monitoring developments related to the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam and any additional Ethiopian projects on the Blue Nile. He linked this assessment to the extent to which internal crises affect the Ethiopian government’s priorities and resources, as well as its ability to act abroad.
Abdel Mohsen stressed that the ongoing tensions in the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea underscore the need to keep water issues separate from political and security conflicts, to prevent the water interests of Nile Basin countries from being affected. He noted that Egypt relies on the Nile River for more than 98% of its renewable water resources and treats the issue as one of existential national security.
Experts link unrest to reshaping regional balances
Hitham Omran, professor of political science and international law at Suez University, said Ethiopia’s position at the heart of security unrest affects more than its internal affairs, constituting a geopolitical factor that could reorder the balance of power in East Africa. He added that the conflict with Tigray had, in his assessment, exposed the fragility of Ethiopia’s federal structure.
Omran said Addis Ababa had moved to export its internal crisis and provoke confrontations with neighbouring countries in an effort to evade the demands of political and social stability. He said this confrontational approach had deepened the crisis with Egypt and Sudan, as the internal conflict coincided with what he described as intransigence over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam and the entrenchment of a fait accompli policy through unilateral filling, in addition to border tensions.
He added that Cairo and Khartoum no longer viewed the issue as merely a technical dispute over the dam’s operating rules, but as a direct and fundamental threat to the water and national security of the two downstream countries.
He said instability in the upstream country makes the water issue hostage to narrow political agendas and hampers the chances of reaching rational dialogue among the parties concerned. Omran stressed that achieving regional stability and safeguarding the fair use of Nile waters require reaching a binding legal agreement that guarantees the rights of all parties.
He said such an agreement would help shield the region from the risk of conflicts linked to resources spreading, amid the overlap between Ethiopia’s internal disputes and regional disagreements over water and borders.
