Tensions in Ethiopia have entered a new phase with the resumption of clashes between federal forces and Tigray People’s Liberation Front forces, and the latter’s takeover of key airports in the region, as fighting spreads to neighbouring areas and shifts in armed alliances could widen the conflict beyond Tigray.
Tigray forces take control of airports
The federal government said the front’s forces had taken control of strategic airports, foremost among them Mekelle Airport in the regional capital. Field reports indicated that tensions had spread from Tigray to areas in the Afar region, alongside reports of attacks at border points linking Tigray with the Afar and Amhara regions.
Federal forces withdrew their personnel from Mekelle Airport to avoid an outbreak of fighting with the front’s forces, while civilian air traffic halted at two other airports in Tigray. At the same time, there were signs of military forces moving towards areas bordering the region, as tensions remained concentrated in Tigray and its immediate surroundings.
Escalation began last August
The escalation follows rising tensions since last August, when Tigray People’s Liberation Front forces began launching attacks in the western parts of the region. The developments have raised fears that the security and political arrangements that followed the previous war could unravel, particularly as military movements return to sensitive border areas.
Military and strategic expert Brigadier General Hassan Jouni said Tigray forces’ control of Mekelle Airport represented a development in the course of the confrontation, given the connection between airports and the concept of sovereignty. He added that the transfer of control over the airport reflected a challenge to the federal government’s authority in the region.
Jouni explained that the main military value of controlling the airport lay in denying federal forces a strategic facility. However, he said Tigray forces’ ability to operate the airport and use it for extensive military purposes remained limited because they lacked an air force and the aerial capabilities needed to use the facility effectively.
Armed alliance widens challenge to government
The battlefield development coincides with the Tigray People’s Liberation Front joining a newly formed alliance comprising six other armed groups from different Ethiopian regions. According to Jouni, expanding the alliance to include forces from several regions shifts the nature of the confrontation from a local conflict centred in Tigray to a broader challenge to the central government.
The alliance includes armed groups active in areas including Amhara, Oromia and Afar. The participating forces accuse the federal government of concentrating power at the centre and marginalising the regions, while Addis Ababa says it is seeking to address existing divisions through national dialogue. Jouni said the new alliance’s cohesion and military capacity remained uncertain.
Nevertheless, he considered the gathering of several armed movements around a shared political objective — confronting Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government — a new element in the conflict that would increase pressure on federal forces. The possibility of rapprochement between Eritrea and Tigray forces stands out as one of the most sensitive changes in the new alliance landscape.
Signs of rapprochement between Eritrea and Tigray
Asmara fought alongside the Ethiopian government against Tigray forces during the war that began in 2020, before it ended with the Pretoria Agreement signed in November 2022. Jouni pointed to signs of rapprochement between Eritrea and Tigray forces, saying that if this developed into military cooperation, it could provide the front with additional strategic depth because of the long border linking the region with Eritrea.
Such a development, he estimated, could affect Addis Ababa’s ability to manage the confrontation and monitor movement and supply routes. The Eritrean factor is made more sensitive by the positions of Ethiopia and Eritrea in the Red Sea region, as well as Addis Ababa’s years-long efforts to secure access to the sea.
Asmara’s direct entry into the conflict could push the confrontation beyond the internal calculations of Ethiopia’s regions. Jouni warned that any Eritrean cooperation coinciding with activity by the new armed alliance could give the conflict a regional dimension, and perhaps lead to a confrontation between two states in a region already experiencing multiple tensions, particularly in the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandab.
The border between Tigray and Sudan also figures in the geopolitical calculations of the confrontation. Federal forces control areas that form a barrier preventing Tigray forces from connecting with Sudan, giving those positions added importance if military operations expand and supply and movement routes multiply.
The current clashes have again highlighted the fragility of the arrangements that followed the Pretoria Agreement, which ended a war that lasted about two years and claimed the lives of large numbers of Ethiopians. The agreement was intended to pave the way for new security and political arrangements, including the integration of Tigray fighters into state institutions.
