Air Marshal Sir John Stringer, NATO’s deputy supreme allied commander Europe, warned on Tuesday that Russian President Vladimir Putin was becoming «more reckless, dangerous and willing to take risks» as the war in Ukraine continued, saying Moscow was seeking to divide Western allies.
European warnings of a possible test of NATO defences
Stringer made the comments at a security conference in Estonia, as several European leaders warned that Russia could seek to test NATO’s collective defence commitment through bolder attacks. European concerns include acts of sabotage and espionage that officials say have already taken place, along with possible attacks using drones or cyber means.
Stringer urged alliance members to recognise the nature of the «tense and turbulent environment» around them and to exercise caution when determining their responses. He said Putin might seek to lure NATO into an «excessive reaction», requiring member states to assess any potential incidents or provocations carefully.
Polish and French warnings of possible attacks
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said last week that Russia could carry out deliberate strikes using drones or missiles against NATO member states, then portray them as accidental incidents. French President Emmanuel Macron backed that assessment and asked his government to prepare a plan to protect critical infrastructure from possible drone and cyber attacks.
In contrast to those warnings, other European officials affirmed the seriousness of the Russian threat but called for calm and a de-escalation. A British defence official, speaking on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the security issues discussed, said the British assessment was that Putin was not seeking a direct confrontation with NATO.
Officials in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, countries bordering Russia, also showed greater caution when assessing the possibility of a dangerous escalation. The position follows years of Baltic states urging Western governments to adopt a tougher policy towards Moscow.
Baltic states play down likelihood of direct attack
Latvian President Edgars Rinkēvičs told a small group of journalists on Tuesday evening on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly meetings in New York: «Ukraine is fighting, and Russia is preoccupied with Ukraine. We are not seeing any military build-up near our borders.
On that basis, I think most people agree that the possibility of a direct military attack is not on the cards». Meanwhile, US ambassador to NATO Matthew Whitaker ruled out Russia seeking to test the transatlantic alliance. After taking part in a panel discussion in Des Moines, Iowa, on Tuesday evening, he said: «Putin does not want a conflict with NATO».
Whitaker said that drone incursions into the airspace of countries such as Romania or Poland had, in most cases, resulted from electronic warfare and occurred unintentionally.
But he said hybrid activities, including acts of sabotage, «are a greater concern», also warning against «overreacting», because that was «exactly what I think our adversaries want or hope for».
