Saudi Arabia is planning a military operation against the Houthis in Yemen, considering either an advance along the coast to retake control of the area around Bab al-Mandab and secure shipping in the Red Sea, or a broader, simultaneous attack on several fronts, according to six people familiar with the preparations, including Gulf and Yemeni officials and Western diplomats.
Yemeni forces are expected to lead the operation on the ground, overseen by Riyadh and supported by Saudi air strikes. The sources anticipated that the move would begin in the coming weeks, but gave varying estimates, ranging from its launch within a week to a delay until after the US midterm elections in early November.
The operation's two options and the area around Bab al-Mandab
The officials said Riyadh was considering one option focused on the area around the Bab al-Mandab Strait and a second involving a broader attack, alongside operations on fronts in the governorates of Al Bayda, Marib, Taiz and Al Jawf. More than 100,000 Yemeni soldiers could be mobilised, depending on the scope of the operation ultimately approved.
The potential move aims to reverse the rapid gains made by the Houthis in September, when they advanced along the coast, seized the city of Mokha and a number of Red Sea islands, and expanded their presence towards Bab al-Mandab. The strait is the Red Sea's southern outlet and a major trade route between the Mediterranean and Asia. Its importance has also increased as shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has been disrupted by the conflict with Iran.
According to Western diplomats and a Gulf official, Riyadh has concluded that it will be difficult to begin new Yemeni peace talks with the Houthis as long as they control Bab al-Mandab, as this gives them influence beyond the boundaries of the conflict within Yemen and affects global trade and energy supplies.
International support and protection of Saudi facilities
The United States is providing military advisers and intelligence, including targeting data, to support Saudi air operations in Yemen, according to a Western diplomat. Washington is not, however, moving towards direct participation in the fighting after US President Donald Trump rejected requests from Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman for direct military support, including carrying out air strikes.
Regional and European countries are providing assistance focused on protecting Saudi Arabia and its facilities, without being expected to participate directly in combat operations inside Yemen. Turkey and Pakistan have also supplied Riyadh with military equipment used in Yemen, after the three countries signed the Mecca joint defence agreement in August.
A Pakistani government official said Islamabad sent four cargo planes to Aden during September, the seat of the Saudi-backed Yemeni government, carrying air defence systems, light artillery, drones and counter-drone systems. Pakistani military advisers are working with their Saudi counterparts to support Yemeni forces, while Turkish drones purchased by Riyadh before the current conflict have been deployed over Yemen.
Pakistan has deployed between 30,000 and 40,000 soldiers inside Saudi Arabia to help protect the land border and intercept missiles and drones, according to a Pakistani official who said the forces had arrived in batches since last year, in addition to reinforcements sent after the latest escalation. He said Islamabad had not decided to send forces to Yemen to participate in the fighting.
Pakistani Defence Minister Khawaja Muhammad Asif said on 29 September that his country would use the means at its disposal to defend Saudi Arabia under the joint defence agreement with Riyadh and Ankara, without confirming the participation of Pakistani forces in strikes inside Yemen. He added that Pakistan's military capabilities would be available to Saudi Arabia under the agreement, and that any enemy of the kingdom was an enemy of Pakistan.
Riyadh has asked a number of its allies to help provide defensive systems to protect its oil facilities and other infrastructure from Houthi missile and drone attacks. France announced that it would send forces and defensive systems to Saudi Arabia to help protect the Red Sea coastal city of Yanbu.
Divisions among Yemeni forces and the challenges of an attack
Any ground operation inside Yemen would rely on an alliance of Yemeni factions previously armed and trained by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates during earlier stages of the war. However, those forces suffer from divisions that deepened last winter, when UAE-backed southern fighters attempted to seize territory in eastern Yemen and announced plans for secession, before Saudi-backed forces defeated them after a series of clashes.
Yemeni analyst Mohammed al-Basha said many anti-Houthi forces remained disorganised or unprepared for the lengthy offensive required to force a disciplined Houthi force to retreat. He said those forces were being tested as the Houthis applied pressure on several fronts simultaneously.
Saudi political analyst Ali Al Shihabi, who is close to decision-making circles, said the priority so far had been to defend existing positions and consolidate the front lines, but he expected the forces to shift to the offensive. He added that the operation's success would depend to a large extent on the performance of local forces on the ground.
The toll of the escalation and UN efforts
UN envoy to Yemen Hans Grundberg said he had held talks in Muscat with the Houthis' chief negotiator, Mohammed Abdulsalam, in an attempt to prevent the escalation from spreading. He also met in Riyadh with representatives of the internationally recognised Yemeni government and regional powers. He called for Yemen's war to be separated from the region's other conflicts and for efforts to be made towards a settlement determined by Yemenis through negotiations.
Saudi Arabia entered the Yemen war in 2015 at the head of an Arab coalition supporting the internationally recognised government, after the Houthis seized Sanaa.
A truce reached in 2022 largely held, before the escalation resumed this year with Houthi missile and drone attacks targeting ships and Saudi oil facilities.
