Military analysts said on Wednesday that North Korea may have tested an upgraded version of a short-range ballistic missile equipped with a hypersonic glide vehicle, in a test Pyongyang said was successfully conducted on 20 September in the presence of leader Kim Jong Un and his daughter Kim Ju Ae.
Pyongyang unveils new missile system
North Korea did not officially disclose the weapon system’s name or specifications, saying only that its Missile Administration had tested a “new type of weapon” representing progress in weapons systems technology. However, images released by state media showed a monitoring screen bearing the words “Hwasong-11 Ma-1 flight path”, a system Pyongyang has previously described as hypersonic.
South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff said North Korea launched two short-range ballistic missiles from the eastern coastal area of Wonsan, around three hours apart. Seoul estimated that the first projectile travelled about 450 kilometres, while the second exceeded a range of 600 kilometres before both fell into the sea.
Japanese authorities said the two missiles fell into waters outside Japan’s exclusive economic zone. South Korea and Japan described the launches as threats to regional peace and security, while Seoul said Pyongyang’s ballistic missile activities violated United Nations Security Council resolutions.
Figures differ between Pyongyang and Seoul
A spokesperson for South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff said the military was assessing the details of the announcement, warning that North Korean data on missile capabilities could not be treated as fully confirmed. South Korean analysts also suggested that the figures shown on the screen may have been presented to portray the test as more successful.
Possible specifications of the upgraded Hwasong version
Experts said the images indicated an upgraded version of the short-range Hwasong-11 Ma-1 missile, combining a rocket booster from the Hwasong-11 family with a glide vehicle designed to manoeuvre at hypersonic speeds. The number added to the system’s name indicates a gradual development of the previous version, although Pyongyang has not explained the nature of the modifications.
Yang Moo-jin, former president of the University of North Korean Studies in Seoul, estimated the weapon’s range at between 450 and 600 kilometres. He said the system was designed to strike key military facilities on the Korean Peninsula within an extremely short period.
Shin Jong-woo, secretary-general of the Korea Defence and Security Forum, said the publication of data on the range and warhead altitude was intended to demonstrate the weapon’s ability to glide at low altitude. He added that the wings visible in the images appeared longer, which could indicate an improved ability to rise again during descent and continue gliding at low levels.
Hypersonic weapons typically maintain a speed of at least five times the speed of sound, while being capable of manoeuvring and flying at lower altitudes than conventional ballistic missiles. This allows them to alter their flight path during the terminal phase and reduce the time available to defence systems to detect, track and intercept the projectile.
Hong Seong-pyo, a senior researcher at the Korea Institute for Military Affairs in Seoul, said the weapon would pose a serious threat if used against South Korea. But he stressed that one successful test was not enough to prove its capabilities, adding that interception would become extremely difficult if it entered operational service with the characteristics announced.
Hong added that the vehicle could manoeuvre during descent in the final phase of flight, making it harder to track and intercept than conventional ballistic missiles, particularly when moving at hypersonic speed. Researcher Ahn Chan-il, meanwhile, said North Korea may be exaggerating its capabilities, but in his assessment it had reached a stage at which it could launch weapons of this type.
The tests were also linked to the testing of North Korea’s defence industry products and its ability to meet foreign military orders, an analytical assessment not confirmed by Pyongyang. The images showed two missiles with conical, fin-equipped warheads launching from mobile platforms. Kim Jong Un was also shown with his daughter watching flight data, while the path displayed on the screen initially appeared to rise before descending, then rising again and continuing towards the target area.
This type of movement is known as a “pop-up” manoeuvre, in which the vehicle rises again during the descent phase. Analysts say the combination of high speed, a low trajectory and manoeuvrability could place greater pressure on South Korean and US missile defence systems.
Kim said the test proved that his country possessed advanced defence technology and demonstrated progress in modernising its armed forces. He added that possessing this technology was highly important for the country’s war readiness and the future development of its armed forces.
The North Korean leader also said his country’s adversaries would recognise the military significance of this progress, arguing that development of the system would impose a severe challenge on them. The test is part of a series of military demonstrations and trials conducted by Pyongyang to expand its missile capabilities and develop weapons capable of bypassing regional defence systems.
