Around 160 million Brazilians are heading to the polls on Sunday to take part in the first round of the presidential election, in a close contest between left-wing President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and right-wing Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, after an election campaign overshadowed by scandals affecting both camps and leaving some voters undecided.
Lula’s political career and corruption cases
Lula is contesting what is expected to be his final election, after returning to power in 2023. He previously spent time in prison after being convicted in corruption cases, before those convictions were annulled on procedural grounds related to jurisdiction.
During his campaign, the Brazilian president focused on defending national sovereignty, warning of foreign interference in the electoral process, particularly from circles supporting US President Donald Trump. He said Brazilians would choose between “democracy and denial of democracy”, and pledged to prevent those he described as enemies of democracy at home and abroad from influencing voters’ decisions.
Trump has previously backed right-wing candidates during elections in Latin American countries and hosted Flávio Bolsonaro at the White House earlier this year, without openly declaring his support for him. Lula is campaigning on the record of his third term, which has seen social programmes expanded, tax reforms carried out and deforestation in the Amazon reduced.
Unemployment has also fallen to its lowest level and inflation is under control, but slowing economic growth and continuing public concerns about crime and violence pose challenges to his bid for another term. As the polling gap narrowed, Lula took measures aimed at winning over working-class voters, including increasing social assistance and banning online betting.
Flávio puts security and tackling crime at the forefront
Critics of the betting industry say it has plunged millions of Brazilians into debt. Flávio Bolsonaro entered the race after his father, Jair, put him forward as a presidential candidate following the former president’s 27-year prison sentence. The senator is seeking to present himself to voters as a “more moderate” version of his father.
Flávio made security and tackling crime the two main pillars of his campaign, pledging to step up the fight against criminal groups and build huge prisons under the strictest security measures. These issues carry electoral weight as crime and violence top the concerns of some voters. But Flávio’s campaign is facing the fallout from an investigation into suspected corruption and money laundering linked to the financing of a film about his father’s life.
Corruption investigations put pressure on both campaigns
The funding is linked to banker Daniel Forkaro, who has been accused of orchestrating one of Brazil’s largest financial fraud schemes. Links were also uncovered between Forkaro and an influential judge on the Supreme Court, a case that analysts said tarnished the image of the country’s institutions and also damaged Lula’s campaign.
Jocimar Silva, of the Institute of Political Science at the University of Brasília, said the campaign had been “overshadowed by scandals rather than political programmes”, adding that voters were weary and that people “believe everyone is corrupt”.
