Estonian authorities accused Russian intelligence of being behind a deliberate fire at one of the buildings of defence manufacturer Milrem Robotics in Tallinn, after an investigation they said had established that the incident was an act of sabotage. Moscow rejected the findings, while European governments expressed solidarity with Estonia amid mounting accusations that Russia was carrying out operations targeting sensitive facilities linked to weapons supplies to Ukraine.
The fire broke out in mid-August last year inside a building belonging to the company, which develops unmanned military systems and has been sending products to Ukraine since 2022. Firefighters quickly brought the blaze under control before the authorities began investigating the cause of the incident and the parties potentially involved.
Information published by the British newspaper The Telegraph said Latvian authorities had arrested three citizens suspected of involvement in the fire. After more than two months of investigations, Estonia announced that the blaze had not started accidentally and that the incident was a deliberate sabotage operation carried out by Russian intelligence.
Estonian Prime Minister Kristen Michal said the Internal Security Service had reached the conclusion after a “thorough assessment of the information it had gathered”. He added that the perpetrators had been detained and “no longer posed a threat”, saying that his government had summoned the Russian ambassador over the findings of the investigation.
Estonian accusations amid rising tensions in Europe
Estonia, a member of the European Union and NATO located on the alliance’s eastern flank, accuses Russia of carrying out a series of “multifaceted” provocative acts since the start of Russia’s full-scale war on Ukraine in 2022.
Estonia, together with its neighbours Latvia and Lithuania, has increased its defence investment in recent years and has remained one of Europe’s leading supporters of Kyiv. The Tallinn factory fire is part of a series of unexplained incidents that, over relatively close periods, targeted European arms factories involved in producing or supplying military equipment intended for Ukraine.
European officials believe the nature of the facilities targeted and the timing of the incidents strengthen suspicions that sabotage operations aimed at disrupting the flow of weapons to Kyiv, in line with Russian interests, are under way. On 10 August, a major explosion occurred at a factory belonging to IMCO, one of Bulgaria’s largest private arms manufacturers.
The factory produces 155-millimetre artillery ammunition for Ukraine, placing the incident among those that have raised concerns about the security of European defence-industry facilities. Three days later, a mysterious explosion shook an ammunition factory operated by Ammo Italia in Colleferro, near the Italian capital Rome. Initial investigations indicated that a fire had broken out inside a unit used to manufacture gunpowder.
In March last year, a major fire destroyed a factory in the Czech Republic that produces drones and thermal-optical devices for Ukraine. Authorities detained four suspects as part of an investigation into possible Russian involvement in the incident, without announcing a final finding establishing Moscow’s direct responsibility.
Arms-factory incidents raise suspicions of sabotage
Apart from the Estonian investigation, inquiries into these incidents have so far not established direct Russian involvement because conclusive evidence has not been available. Nevertheless, NATO countries, particularly those in eastern Europe, believe there may be a Russian fingerprint in attacks targeting facilities linked to military support for Ukraine.
In an investigation published in August, The Telegraph quoted Western intelligence sources as saying that attacks on European arms factories were being carefully orchestrated by the Kremlin. According to those sources, Moscow recruits members of local criminal gangs to carry out acts of sabotage against defence facilities as part of what is described as “hybrid warfare”, rather than directly involving Russian agents.
The investigation added that, according to the sources, operations intended to disrupt military support for Ukraine reflected a tactic allowing Russia to avoid creating a situation that could lead to Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty being activated. The article commits alliance members to defend any member state that comes under external attack.
The Estonian case coincided with similar accusations made by Germany earlier in September over an attempt to target Leipzig airport in the east of the country with a drone. Russia denies any connection to these incidents and, in turn, accuses NATO member states of escalating military provocations near its territory and waging a hostile campaign against it, while indirectly participating in the war by providing military and technical support to Ukraine.
Moscow rejects accusation as Europe declares solidarity
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov rejected the announced findings of the investigation into the factory fire in Tallinn. He said the allegations were baseless and ill-considered and should not be taken seriously, according to Russia’s TASS news agency.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, for his part, accused Europe of waging a war against Russia, referring in particular to European arms supplies destined for Ukraine. Moscow also accused NATO of creating an “unprecedented escalation of the military and political situation around the Russian region of Kaliningrad, accompanied by highly provocative public statements from officials in alliance countries”, according to a message whose contents were disclosed.
The message said Russia would be prepared to use its entire arsenal and available capabilities, including nuclear weapons, to defend its territory if NATO countries attempted to isolate the Kaliningrad region from the rest of Russian territory. In European reactions, French President Emmanuel Macron announced his “full solidarity” with Estonia.
He said that the increase in attacks attributed to Moscow inside European countries, following the drone incident at Leipzig airport, reflected a “dangerous Russian approach characterised by escalation and pushing forward along a dead-end path that will only deepen its isolation”.
Macron added that Russia must understand that it would not succeed in undermining the unity of European countries or their determination to continue supporting Ukraine. The European Union also declared its “full solidarity” with Estonia, while European Commission spokesman Christian Wigand said Moscow was seeking in this way to intimidate Europe and push it to reduce its support for Kyiv, stressing that this would not happen.
Lithuanian Foreign Minister Kęstutis Budrys said that “Russia’s fingerprints are clear in every detail” of the attack targeting Estonia, adding that “Moscow’s hostile activities do not stop at Ukraine’s borders”. Latvian President Edgars Rinkēvičs stressed the need to provide further support to Ukraine, saying that such support “will be necessary and must be provided”.
Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson described the findings of the Estonian investigation attributing the attack to Russia as “extremely serious”, and said the attack was not targeting Estonia alone but “Europe as a whole”.
