Somalia faces a security test as Al-Shabaab recaptures most of the territory it lost during the Somali army’s campaign between 2022 and 2023, while the African Union peacekeeping mission prepares to withdraw and US President Donald Trump’s administration decides to end logistical support for the mission at the end of December.
The history of the African deployment and the group’s expansion
Successive African Union missions had pushed the group out of Mogadishu and other cities in southern and central Somalia after the first African troops were deployed in the capital in 2007. But the group retained a presence across large rural areas before expanding its influence again in recent years.
In 2025, a group offensive came within about 45 kilometres of Mogadishu, prompting Turkey to send additional troops. Countries contributing to the African force, meanwhile, called for the mission to be extended by between 18 and 24 months, amid doubts about the Somali forces’ readiness to assume security responsibilities.
US support for the African mission
Somali political analyst and former diplomat Abukar Arman said the international community had not developed a strategy to defeat Al-Shabaab, warning that the group would await the departure of the last troops to exploit the resulting vacuum, while no other country appeared capable of replacing the withdrawing forces.
The group’s resources and local institutions
The group’s influence is not limited to military activity: it runs courts and a tax system and provides some services in areas under its control. According to estimates cited in the report, it collects between $100 million and $150 million a year in taxes, compared with government revenues of just over $250 million, most of which comes from customs at Mogadishu port and donor transfers.
Jethro Norman, a researcher at the Danish Institute, said the international community had focused on the military mission, while the group had concentrated on building structures resembling state institutions. Some civilians turn to the group’s courts even in government-controlled areas, including Mogadishu, as corruption affects trust in official institutions.
Norman said political forces’ cooperation with efforts to combat the group had remained limited because regional leaders feared that a government victory would strengthen its legitimacy. The group also benefited from opposition to foreign intervention and memories of the war on terror. Al-Shabaab’s influence grew after the 2006 Ethiopian intervention, which received US diplomatic and intelligence support, followed by US airstrikes.
According to Norman, the group presented itself as a resistance movement, and some recruits joined in protest against the conduct of Ethiopian forces rather than because of an attachment to its ideology linked to al-Qaeda.
