Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s warning to Belarus has revived concerns that Minsk could expand its role in the war, amid Ukrainian accusations that infrastructure on its territory is being used to direct Russian strikes and fears that the northern border could become a new pressure point against Ukrainian forces.
Ukrainian accusations and warnings of a northern front
Zelenskyy accused Belarus in June 2026 of having relay devices in border areas that are being used to direct Russian strikes at civilian targets.
He gave Minsk a week to remove them, hinting at a military response. That same month, Ukrainian army chief Oleksandr Syrskyi said his country was preparing for the possibility of a Russian attack from the north.
But he said there were no strong indications that Belarus would re-enter the war, citing signs that Minsk was reluctant to allow its territory to be used.
Belarus had previously opened its territory to Russian forces from February 2022, from where attacks were launched toward Kyiv, while its facilities were also used to support military operations.
Belarus’s growing dependence on Russia
During 2026, Ukrainian intelligence said some Russian drones had been directed through control infrastructure inside Belarusian territory, prompting Kyiv to treat Minsk as a party to the war.
Belarus’s calculations are linked to the course of its relationship with Russia and to the position of President Alexander Lukashenko, who has ruled the country since 1994.
For years, Lukashenko maintained a balance between dependence on Moscow and retaining a degree of independence, before the fallout from the 2020 election increased his country’s ties to Russia.
Belarus saw widespread protests after the election, while Western countries refused to recognise its results and imposed sanctions on Minsk.
Russian support expands economic and military influence
Russia provided political and economic support to the Belarusian authorities as the country’s isolation from the West deepened. Russia accounted for about 66% of Belarus’s total trade, including exports and imports, making it Minsk’s most important economic partner.
This was accompanied by expanded political and military cooperation between the two countries. However, this rapprochement does not mean there is broad Belarusian support for direct participation in the war.
Moscow pressures Belarus to expand its role in the war Regional expansion of the conflict and pressure on Minsk
The 1999 treaty also established a framework for political and military integration and joint defence, deepening the integration of the two countries’ forces within a shared military system.
The data indicate that Moscow has intensified pressure on Lukashenko since the beginning of 2026 to expand his country’s role, either by using Belarusian territory to launch more drones or by threatening to open a northern front that would wear down Ukrainian forces.
Another track involves hybrid operations against Poland, Lithuania and Latvia, members of NATO, amid rising friction between Russia and European countries.
Moscow has economic and political tools with which to pressure Minsk, as Russian officials have spoken of potentially reducing aid if Belarus resists Russian demands.
In June, Lukashenko asked Russia’s ambassador to Belarus not to drag the country into the war, indicating his desire to prevent indirect support from turning into declared military participation. Ukraine is monitoring developments in the north based on the experience of 2022, when Russian forces used Belarusian territory as a corridor for their attack on Kyiv.
Even the threat of opening a new front could prompt Ukrainian forces to redeploy away from the eastern fronts where the main battles are taking place.
These developments leave Lukashenko balancing between continuing to support Moscow, thereby deepening his country’s ties to it, and resisting its demands at the risk of reduced Russian backing.
Ukraine’s ability to carry out long-range strikes also factors into Minsk’s calculations, amid indications in the data that its air defences are unable to deal with evolving threats.
