Britain’s relationship with the European Union has returned to the forefront of political debate a decade after the Brexit referendum, as British Prime Minister Andy Burnham called for all available options for the future relationship with Brussels to be examined, including maintaining the current arrangements, returning to the customs union and single market, and ultimately the possibility of rejoining the union in full.
Burnham’s comments do not represent an immediate decision to return Britain to the European bloc, but they broaden the scope of the formal debate over the options London could pursue.
Burnham puts full membership among the options
The Prime Minister said his country should consider the future of its relationship with its European partners and examine the various paths available, including the option of “going all the way” and restoring full membership. Burnham had previously said that the damage caused by Brexit had outweighed its benefits, and that leaving the European Union had not delivered on the promises made during the withdrawal campaign.
He said Britain had become economically weaker and less able to manage the issue of immigration, which was one of the main themes of the withdrawal campaign. The British Prime Minister is expected to present an outline of the various options alongside the summit between Britain and the European Union scheduled for November.
However, available estimates indicate that any formal steps towards returning may not begin before the next general election, due by mid-2029. The debate reopens an issue that began on 23 June 2016, when 51.9% of referendum participants backed leaving the European Union, while 48.1% voted to remain.
Turnout in that vote was 72.2% of the electorate, producing a result that divided British society and politics and set in motion a negotiating process lasting several years. The withdrawal campaign at the time focused on regaining control over laws, borders and immigration policy, alongside objections to the nature of Britain’s relationship with the European Union’s institutions.
The campaign summed up these aims in the slogan “Take back control”, which became one of the most prominent political headlines associated with the referendum and the internal disputes that followed. On 29 March 2017, London formally began the withdrawal process by triggering Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union.
This was followed by years of negotiations, delays and political conflict in the British Parliament over the withdrawal agreement, trade arrangements and the rules governing the post-membership period. The United Kingdom formally left the European Union on 31 January 2020, before entering a transition period that lasted until the end of that year.
On 31 December 2020, that period ended and Britain left the European single market and customs union, beginning a new trade and political relationship with the bloc under post-Brexit arrangements.
Brexit continues to leave effects after withdrawal
Despite the completion of the withdrawal, Brexit has not disappeared from British debate. Its economic and political effects have remained the subject of continuing disagreement, particularly regarding trade with the European Union, Britain’s largest economic partner. Debate has also continued over the extent to which the promises made by supporters of leaving during the referendum campaign have been fulfilled. Opinion polls a decade after the vote indicate a marked shift in public sentiment.
However, support fell sharply when the questions included conditions for a possible return, including not regaining the privileges and opt-outs London enjoyed before leaving the bloc. A study by the European Council on Foreign Relations also concluded that around three-quarters of Britons want a closer relationship with the European Union.
In a poll covering several European countries, 66% of respondents in the participating countries supported Britain returning to EU membership, indicating broad European acceptance of the idea in principle. These results do not mean there is unconditional British or European support for restoring membership.
The nature of the commitments London might accept and the extent to which it would be subject to common rules and policies remain influential factors in the views of British voters and citizens of member states, alongside the economic and political details of any possible agreement. Calls for rejoining did not begin with Burnham’s comments; their presence in British politics has gradually grown in recent years.
Political and European support for closer British ties
Former Prime Minister Tony Blair was among the most prominent supporters of this approach, calling in September for Britain to work towards returning to the European Union within the next 10 years. Senior Labour Party officials have previously described Brexit as a mistake, while others have favoured a gradual path beginning with closer ties to the European market and customs union, rather than moving directly towards full membership.
In this context, Burnham’s comments raise the level of the debate from improving links to including rejoining among the options under consideration. On the European side, French President Emmanuel Macron previously said that the door remained open to Britain.
During his most recent visit to the United Kingdom, he also expressed a willingness to support efforts to reset relations between London and the European Union, reflecting Paris’s welcome for closer British-European ties. France was not the only European country to show openness to Britain’s return.
Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez said Madrid would “certainly” support Britain’s membership if London decided to launch a new accession process, placing Spain among the countries that have clearly declared their readiness to back such a path. Finnish President Alexander Stubb described Britain as a potential candidate for membership and said Europe “misses” its British voice.
Last May, the European Green Party formally called on the United Kingdom to rejoin the European Union, providing another indication of the growing debate over a return within European political circles. In France, too, former Prime Minister Gabriel Attal called for Britain’s return last June and described Brexit as catastrophic.
Attal stressed the United Kingdom’s importance to European security and its role in defence and strategic affairs, considerations that go beyond trade and economic relations between the two sides. But moving from putting forward the idea to implementing it would require a long and complex process.
A return would require negotiations and new membership conditions
A return would not happen simply by reversing the outcome of the 2016 referendum. It would require a new accession process, as well as negotiations with member states and the European Union’s institutions over the membership terms and the legal, political and economic obligations London would assume.
One of the main obstacles concerns the status of the opt-outs Britain enjoyed before Brexit, including remaining outside the eurozone and the Schengen Area. Opinion polls show that British support for returning falls when respondents are asked to envisage new membership that does not include the previous privileges retained by the United Kingdom during its first period of membership.
In France and Germany, YouGov polls showed that a majority of those supporting Britain’s return believed it should comply with the main European policies. This means that welcoming the possibility of restoring membership does not necessarily amount to accepting the restoration of the same terms and opt-outs that applied before withdrawal.
Between the current arrangement and full membership, other models could also be among Britain’s options, including returning to the single market or customs union. A relationship similar to that between the European Union and countries such as Norway or Switzerland could also be considered, giving Britain varying levels of access to the European market in return for complying with shared rules and arrangements. Within Britain, Burnham’s comments faced political opposition.
The Reform UK party accused the Prime Minister of trying to return Britain to Brussels “through the back door”, while opponents warned that raising membership again could renew the political and social divisions created by the 2016 referendum. More cautious positions have also emerged within the camp supporting closer European ties.
Those taking this view believe the priority should be improving practical cooperation with the European Union, rather than turning full membership into a new political battle. The distinction therefore remains between calling for a closer relationship and taking an official decision to begin the accession process.
Burnham’s vision puts several paths before Britain, beginning with maintaining the status quo, including a return to the customs union or single market, and ending with restoring full membership. European capitals, meanwhile, have shown greater readiness to discuss closer ties, while making clear that any new accession would be subject to new negotiations and conditions.
The British-European summit expected in November will be the next stage in this process, with the Prime Minister’s presentation of his vision for the possible options expected to coincide with it. Any formal move towards full membership, however, remains tied to the domestic debate, the European Union’s conditions and the political timetable extending to the general election due by mid-2029.
