Voters in the German states of Berlin and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania are going to the polls on Sunday 20 September 2026 in a fresh electoral test for Chancellor Friedrich Merz, two weeks after the right-wing populist Alternative for Germany won the Saxony-Anhalt state election by a wide margin and Merz’s Christian Democratic Union suffered a decline.
The elections in the two states conclude a series of contests held in five German states this year. They have highlighted growing voter dissatisfaction with the performance of Merz’s coalition government, increased political pressure on the chancellor and prompted questions within conservative circles about his future in office.
Christian Democrats face setback in Saxony-Anhalt
The Christian Democratic Union suffered a setback in the Saxony-Anhalt election at the beginning of September, after the Alternative for Germany won around 44% of the vote, while Merz’s party fell to just 17%. The result fuelled speculation within the conservative camp about the possibility of a rare change in the chancellorship.
The Christian Democratic Union faces a particularly difficult situation in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, in north-eastern Germany, where it is seeking to avoid recording its worst-ever result in a state parliamentary election. The latest opinion polls showed its support barely above the 5% threshold required to enter the state parliament.
The Alternative for Germany, meanwhile, hopes to turn its months-long lead in the state’s opinion polls into electoral gains. The party is seeking to thwart an attempt by centre-left forces to regain the initiative under state premier Manuela Schwesig of the Social Democratic Party.
Berlin adds electoral pressure on Merz
The Berlin election is no less important for Merz, as his party faces the possibility of losing the capital’s mayoralty to The Left, the political heir to the Socialist Party that once ruled East Germany. Losing the post, together with a weak result in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, would increase pressure on the chancellor and his party.
Polling stations in both states opened at 8am local time, 6am Greenwich Mean Time. They are due to close at 6pm, after which initial results based on exit polls will be released. The elections come as the Alternative for Germany retains its lead in national opinion polls.
Alternative for Germany leads national poll
A poll by the INSA opinion research institute, commissioned by Bild am Sonntag and published on Sunday, showed the party’s support holding steady at 29%, nine percentage points ahead of the Christian Alliance. The Christian Alliance came second with 20%, the same figure it recorded the previous week.
The Greens came third with 14%, while the Social Democratic Party remained on 13%. Support for The Left rose by one percentage point to 11%. The Free Democratic Party also gained one percentage point, reaching 5%, while the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance secured 3%. The other parties combined fell by two percentage points from the previous week, settling at 5%.
Projections on Merz’s political future
In an article published on Sunday morning, the German magazine Focus Online examined the prospects of Merz overcoming heavy electoral defeats that the Christian Democratic Union could suffer. It said the chancellor might have a chance to regain his breath if he followed the path taken by former Chancellor Angela Merkel in 2018, when she announced that she would not stand for the chancellorship again.
According to the magazine’s assessment, the Christian Democratic Union falling below 5% in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and finishing a distant second in Berlin behind The Left could exhaust the support Merz has received so far, which the magazine described as lukewarm. It added that Merz enjoys the lowest level of public approval compared with his nine predecessors.
It raised the possibility that he could voluntarily resign in the worst-case scenario, but considered this the least likely option, given the effort he made to reach the chancellery.
The magazine instead suggested that Merz could announce that he does not wish to stand again as chancellor in the 2029 election. It said the Christian Alliance would not contest the next election under his leadership again unless opinion-poll indicators showed a clear improvement.
