Denmark’s military intelligence service has warned of a rising risk that Russia could carry out limited military action against a neighbouring NATO member state, while stressing that the possibility of Moscow launching a full-scale invasion of a NATO country remains “highly unlikely”, although it cannot be ruled out entirely.
Danish assessment of the likelihood of a limited attack
The Danish assessment comes as the war in Ukraine continues into its fourth year and beyond, while alarm in Europe over Russian threats and fears of a widening confrontation grow, alongside continued Western support for Kyiv. Thomas Ahrenkiel, head of Denmark’s military intelligence service, said there was a “low but increasing risk” of Russia launching limited military attacks against a NATO member state bordering Russian territory.
He said, however, that the service still considered it “highly unlikely” that Moscow would see an interest in invading a NATO member state, while not entirely dismissing the possibility in its assessments. One scenario examined in the assessment involves Russia carrying out a limited attack while its war in Ukraine continues, in an attempt to push European countries to divert some of their resources and attention away from supporting Kyiv.
Under this scenario, opening an additional flashpoint could distract from European support allocated to Ukraine. Denmark’s military intelligence service described the likelihood of this scenario occurring as low, saying such an attack would be a “desperate move” by Russia and could form part of wider escalation in the coming months.
Signs of preparations for a major Russian war
According to the assessment, the warning does not amount to an expectation that a full-scale Russian war against NATO will break out. Ahrenkiel said major Russian military movements would not be easy to conceal, as assembling the forces required would take several months of preparation. That period would make it possible to detect signs of preparations for any major operation before it began.
The head of military intelligence stressed that the warnings did not mean Russia was currently preparing to attack a Scandinavian country. He also said Denmark did not expect its territory to come under a conventional Russian military attack, despite heightened attention to other security risks linked to Moscow.
Hybrid warfare targets European support
While the likelihood of direct military confrontation remains limited, Denmark’s military intelligence service says the conflict with Russia is already taking other forms, most notably “multi-faceted attacks”, or hybrid warfare. These activities include cyber-attacks, sabotage, espionage and influence operations.
According to the assessment, these operations previously focused on intimidating populations and weakening public support for helping Ukraine, but are increasingly shifting towards obstructing that support itself. This could involve targeting defence industry companies or railway lines used to transport military equipment to Kyiv. Military intelligence also warned that destructive cyber-attacks could intensify, potentially disrupting vital societal functions.
In the same context, Denmark’s national security and intelligence service pointed to rising risks from Russian espionage, sabotage and influence operations inside Denmark.
The Danish assessment places infrastructure, digital systems and routes used to provide military support to Ukraine within the scope of potential risks, alongside the scenario of limited military action. Nevertheless, the service maintained its assessment that a full-scale Russian invasion of a NATO member state remains “highly unlikely”.
