Voters in Bosnia and Herzegovina are casting their ballots on Sunday in general elections covering the three-member presidency, the national parliament and several legislative and regional bodies. The results will affect the country's path towards EU membership and the balance of influence between Washington and Moscow in this Balkan state.
A complex political system and multiple levels of voting
The country operates under a political system described as one of the world's most complex. It consists of two entities and has dozens of ministries, while its presidency is held by a collective body of three members. Citizens are voting simultaneously in legislative elections at state level and at regional levels within Bosnia and Herzegovina's two constituent entities.
The elections are taking place in a calmer atmosphere than previous contests, but national considerations remain a key factor in voters' choices. A central focus of party competition is the political forces' positions on joining the European Union and NATO, amid differing orientations among parties in the two entities.
New electronic measures to curb manipulation
For the first time, the voting process is using machines to read ballot papers electronically, alongside devices that verify voters' identities through fingerprints. The measures aim to curb electoral manipulation, which international observer missions have repeatedly warned about in recent years.
Milan Nitsch, a Balkans expert at the German Council on Foreign Relations, said, “These elections could be a game-changer,” explaining that the results would determine how far the new government turns towards the West and would also affect negotiations on Bosnia and Herzegovina's EU membership.
Warnings that the results could affect regional stability
Nitsch added that Bosnia and Herzegovina was already experiencing a deep crisis, warning that any uncertainty could destabilise the entire region in a way that might hinder the EU's expansion plans. The concerns come as voter frustration grows over the slowing economy and stalled European membership negotiations.
The political crisis is also continuing, with the dominant parties, which are largely ethnic in character in the two entities, accused of obstructing decisions by the fragile central authority that links them. Elvis Vizic, a political science professor at the University of Sarajevo, said parties in the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina entity were promoting a turn towards the West, openness and closer ties with Washington.
By contrast, Vizic said parties in Republika Srpska remained committed to Russian influence, while also drawing closer to the policies of US President Donald Trump in the hope of having sanctions against the entity lifted. The division links the election to determining the direction of foreign policy, alongside competition for local and national governing institutions.
Secession rhetoric deepens internal and federal political disputes
Republika Srpska's threats to secede remain one of the main crises surrounding the elections. Milorad Dodik dominated political life in Republika Srpska for two decades and has taken steps in recent years that deepened the dispute with the central state institutions and the High Representative in Bosnia and Herzegovina.
In 2023, Dodik signed two laws adopted by the National Assembly of Republika Srpska into force. The first stipulates that decisions of Bosnia and Herzegovina's Constitutional Court should not be applied or implemented, while the second removes decisions by the High Representative from the list of decisions required to be published in the official gazette, effectively denying his legitimacy.
According to the same poll, support for Dodik's Alliance of Independent Social Democrats stood at 36%, ahead of its two closest rivals, who received 16% and 12% respectively. The results suggest the party could remain the largest bloc in the assembly, but may struggle to form a governing coalition.
Sunday's vote is not limited to a single election, as voters are choosing the members of Bosnia and Herzegovina's tripartite presidency according to an arrangement linked to the two entities. Voters living in the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina elect the Bosniak and Croat members, while voters in Republika Srpska elect only the Serb member.
Voters are also choosing the House of Representatives of the Parliamentary Assembly of Bosnia and Herzegovina, the state-level parliament, which has 42 members. The process also includes elections for the House of Representatives of the Parliament of the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, as well as the councils of the federation's 10 cantons, with each voter casting a ballot for the council of the canton where they live.
In Republika Srpska, the elections cover the offices of president and vice-president, as well as seats in the entity's National Assembly.
Citizens are therefore voting across multiple layers of the political system, beginning with state institutions, then the federal level and, for residents of the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, the cantonal level.
