Brazilians began voting on Sunday in a deeply polarised presidential election pitting left-wing President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva against his conservative rival, Flávio Bolsonaro. The vote’s significance extends beyond choosing the leader of Latin America’s largest economy, becoming a test of Brazilian voters’ political preferences and the extent of the rightward shift in countries across the region.
Around 159 million voters are taking part in choosing the president, members of Congress and state governors. The vote is taking place as relations between Lula’s government and Washington face an escalating political and trade dispute, amid accusations by Brazilian officials that the US administration is seeking to influence the country’s institutions and elections.
Lula, 80, is seeking a fourth non-consecutive presidential term. Flávio Bolsonaro, 45, is contesting his first presidential election after emerging as one of the leading figures of Brazil’s right following the political and judicial downfall of his father, former President Jair Bolsonaro.
Polls point to a run-off
Pre-election opinion polls give Lula a narrow advantage in the first round, but the margin does not appear sufficient for him to win outright. Hypothetical second-round polls also indicate an extremely close contest between the candidates, leaving the final result open to several possibilities.
Recent data from the Datafolha institute and others showed that neither candidate was close to exceeding the 50% needed to win in the first round. Based on those indicators, the run-off scheduled for 25 October appears the most likely scenario, according to Reuters.
Just a few years ago, Flávio Bolsonaro was not regarded as a candidate capable of seriously competing for Brazil’s presidency. His political position changed, however, after his father was convicted and imprisoned, opening the way for him to take a prominent position within the right-wing and conservative movement and draw on the electoral base that remained loyal to the Bolsonaro family.
Jair Bolsonaro is serving a 27-year prison sentence after being convicted of plotting a coup attempt following his defeat by Lula in the 2022 election. During his campaign, Flávio relied on the continued loyalty of sections of conservative voters to his father, while making his pardon and political rehabilitation a central part of his electoral message.
Flávio’s rise after his father’s downfall
US President Donald Trump looms large in the background of the race, although he has not formally endorsed Flávio Bolsonaro, according to Agence France-Presse. His presence grew more prominent after Washington confronted Lula’s government over Jair Bolsonaro’s trial, alongside trade and political disputes between the two countries.
The Trump administration imposed tariffs and sanctions on Brazil, while Brazilian officials accused the US administration of seeking to influence the country’s institutions and electoral process. The Guardian reported that US funds had been directed towards anti-left groups and causes, including a one-million-dollar grant for a campaign targeting Brazil’s Supreme Court.
The information prompted Brazil’s attorney general to request an investigation into suspected foreign interference. The issue has placed relations with the United States at the centre of the political debate surrounding the election, alongside domestic matters of greater concern to voters, such as crime, the cost of living, government spending and public debt.
Dispute with Washington enters the race
Brazil’s election comes after right-wing and conservative forces made gains in several Latin American countries. Their advances were partly linked to voters’ concerns about crime, migration, economic conditions and the rising cost of living, giving the outcome of the vote in Brazil regional significance beyond the country’s borders.
A victory for Flávio Bolsonaro would bring to the presidency of Latin America’s largest country a politician closer to Trump. Lula’s continuation in office, by contrast, would preserve one of the region’s leading left-wing voices and continue his opposition to several of Washington’s policies towards the continent. The Guardian described the vote as a test for the growing bloc of right-wing governments allied with Trump in Latin America.
Election extends beyond Brazil’s regional borders
Domestically, Lula is relying on economic and social indicators including unemployment falling to historic levels, as well as his record of reducing poverty during his previous two presidential terms. His campaign has also highlighted the decline in deforestation in the Amazon compared with levels recorded during Jair Bolsonaro’s government.
Flávio Bolsonaro, by contrast, is focusing on security, cutting public spending and managing debt, issues that resonate with sections of conservative voters. The contrast turns the election into a contest between the social and environmental priorities more strongly championed by Lula and a right-wing programme that puts security and spending controls at the top of its agenda.
The environment is an important issue alongside the economy and security, as Lula’s continuation in office and a return of the right to the presidency are seen as two different approaches to managing Brazil’s policy towards the Amazon rainforest. During Lula’s current term, deforestation has fallen sharply compared with the final years of Jair Bolsonaro’s presidency.
The decline has strengthened Brazil’s international image as a leading participant in efforts to combat climate change. The election result could therefore affect forest and climate protection policies, as well as Brasília’s relations with major economic powers, according to the Guardian’s account of the race’s environmental and international dimensions.
Despite the intensity of the polarisation, not all voters have made their choices based on loyalty to one of the two camps. The campaign has shown signs of political fatigue among sections of the Brazilian public, particularly as the Bolsonaro family returned to the forefront of the contest after years of division following the 2022 election.
Detailed policy platforms have also given way across large parts of the campaign to personal attacks and mutual accusations. Corruption scandals and economic concerns have remained prominent in the public debate, while polls have shown the contest continuing to be open, with Lula holding a narrow advantage and no strong third candidate capable of breaking the polarisation between the two main camps.
The election presents Brazilians with two competing political paths: one represented by Lula, who favours maintaining greater independence from Washington, and the other represented by Flávio Bolsonaro, who appears more willing to move closer to the Trump administration.
The result will affect Brazil’s position in Latin America, its relations with Washington and Beijing, and the balance of competition between the right and the left in the region.
