The cost of delivering wheat to importing markets has risen as part of the Black Sea flows have been disrupted and shipping and insurance risks have increased, despite a forecast by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations that global production will reach about 810.7 million tonnes in 2026, the second-largest harvest ever recorded after the 2025 level.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture estimates global wheat production at about 822.4 million tonnes for the 2026/2027 season. The gap between the two estimates reflects differences in update timing, methodologies and marketing years, while current pressure is concentrated on access, trade and shipping rather than an overall grain shortage.
Abundant production does not prevent higher costs
Russian and Ukrainian ports handle 30% of global wheat exports, according to data from Kpler, which tracks commodity trade and shipping. The suspension or scaling back of loading operations at key ports has increased demand for Australian, Canadian, European and Argentine wheat.
The benchmark Australian wheat price reached about $301 per tonne on a free-on-board basis from Kwinana in Western Australia in early September, up $35 since attacks on Black Sea infrastructure and shipping intensified on July 6. Premium Australian wheat was priced at about $312 per tonne, while high-protein 13.5% Canadian wheat in Vancouver reached $331.34 per tonne.
Price differences reflect variations in origin, quality, protein content and shipping costs, and do not represent a single global price. U.S. Department of Agriculture data showed export offers rising among major exporters in September, except Russia, where offers declined as supplies accumulated and exports became more difficult.
In Ukraine, loading operations at the ports of Odesa, Chornomorsk and Pivdennyi have become limited or halted because of security risks, while Danube River ports and overland routes through Romania cannot match the capacity and speed of deepwater ports. Ukrainian stocks exceeded 6 million tonnes as the new harvest arrived, according to Kpler estimates.
In Russia, key facilities and ports, including Taman and Kavkaz, have been damaged, increasing the importance of Novorossiysk and Tuapse in export flows. Kpler estimates Russia's available export capacity, excluding Kavkaz, at about 2 million to 2.5 million tonnes per month, versus a theoretical ceiling of about 4 million tonnes if Azov Sea facilities operated at full capacity.
Moscow has begun diverting some shipments to Baltic and Arctic ports, including Ust-Luga and Murmansk, adapting terminals dedicated to fertilizers, coal and other commodities to handle grain. Existing capacity at Russia's Baltic grain ports ranges from 2 million to 7 million tonnes a year, compared with more than 60 million tonnes at southern ports.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture expects global wheat trade to decline to about 213.2 million tonnes in 2026/2027 from 226.6 million tonnes in 2025/2026. This reflects reduced capacity to move shipments, making available wheat more expensive, slower to arrive and harder for importers to finance.
How does the cost reach bread prices?
A rise in global wheat prices does not pass through at the same rate to local bread prices. Between the two are shipping, insurance, financing, storage, transport, milling and distribution costs, as well as taxes, government subsidies and bakery margins.
Factors determining the consumer price
The export price of wheat.
Shipping and insurance costs.
The dollar exchange rate and financing costs.
Port, storage and inland transport fees.
Milling, packaging and distribution.
Government subsidy and tax policies, and bakery margins.
In countries that subsidize bread, the impact first appears in the public budget and foreign-currency requirements before reaching the price of a loaf. In economies with weaker currencies or less government support, the shock may pass more quickly into prices for flour, baked goods and processed foods.
Russia and Ukraine: Stockpiles build as exports decline
The U.S. Department of Agriculture expects Russia's exports to reach about 43 million tonnes in 2026/2027, compared with 46 million tonnes in its 2025/2026 estimate, after cutting its September forecast by 3 million tonnes from the August estimate. It also lowered its estimate for Russian production to 88 million tonnes from 88.5 million tonnes previously. Port disruptions and grain congestion are limiting farmers' and traders' ability to benefit from higher international prices.
In Ukraine, production is estimated at about 26 million tonnes in 2026/2027, compared with 24.1 million tonnes in the previous season, but expected exports are falling to 12.5 million tonnes from 14.1 million tonnes in 2025/2026 and 13.5 million tonnes in the August estimate. Higher transport costs and weak export outlets could lower the domestic prices received by producers despite rising international prices.
Eight importing countries under pressure from higher bills
The U.S. Department of Agriculture expects Egypt's imports to reach about 12 million tonnes in 2026/2027, compared with 15.2 million tonnes in the previous season. Domestic production is estimated at about 10 million tonnes in the 2027/2026 season, against consumption of about 20.7 million tonnes. A hypothetical $50 increase in the cost per tonne across all imports would amount to about $600 million in additional costs, before changes in shipping and insurance costs or volumes.
Indonesia tops the list of importers in the 2026/2027 data, with expected imports of 12.5 million tonnes to meet demand for flour, baked goods, noodles and processed foods. A hypothetical increase of $35 per tonne, if applied to the entire volume, would amount to about $437.5 million in additional costs before shipping and insurance.
Algeria's expected imports stand at 8.3 million tonnes in 2026/2027, after the estimate was cut from 8.5 million tonnes because of higher stocks. Purchasing power, a centralized import system and diversified origins cushion the shock, but a hypothetical $50 increase per tonne would mean about $415 million in additional import costs.
Bangladesh's imports are estimated at about 7 million tonnes. A hypothetical $50 increase per tonne would add about $350 million to the annual import bill, before other trade and financing costs, with the impact potentially reaching flour, bread and processed foods.
Nigeria's expected imports amount to 6.2 million tonnes, while costs are also affected by dollar financing, shipping to West Africa, currency fluctuations and inland transport. A hypothetical $50 increase per tonne would raise the value of imports by about $310 million, before shipping, insurance and exchange-rate effects.
Turkey combines wheat production, imports and milling with the re-export of flour and related products. The U.S. Department of Agriculture expects its production to reach 22.5 million tonnes, imports 5 million tonnes and exports 6 million tonnes in 2026/2027. Higher wheat costs and less flexible Black Sea flows could weigh on the competitiveness of flour exports, although domestic production would offset part of the impact.
Yemen's expected imports amount to 4.15 million tonnes, but weak purchasing power, financing and inland transport difficulties, and reliance on imports and food aid amplify the impact of higher costs. A joint report by the Food and Agriculture Organization and the World Food Programme ranks Yemen among the hunger hotspots at highest risk in 2026.
Sudan's expected imports stand at about 2.8 million tonnes amid conflict, disrupted markets and transport, declining purchasing power, a weaker Sudanese pound and difficulties delivering aid. United Nations estimates indicate that about 19.5 million people will face crisis levels or worse of acute food insecurity in 2026.
Canada, Australia, Argentina and some European suppliers may benefit as demand shifts toward their origins and prices rise, but port, rail and vessel capacity could limit those gains. Higher prices also reduce some importers' ability to buy, leaving the crisis more closely tied to the cost, speed and financing of delivery than to a global exhaustion of wheat.
