OPEC+ countries are expected to keep their oil production targets unchanged for November at a meeting scheduled for Sunday, according to two sources familiar with the discussions, who said the group had not yet reached a final decision as it monitors developments in the oil market and crude supplies from the Gulf region.
Recovery in Gulf supplies
The virtual meeting includes seven key OPEC+ countries: Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan and Oman. It comes as Gulf countries have begun increasing oil exports that were disrupted for months by the war with Iran, while most producers are still pumping volumes significantly below their production targets.
OPEC+ raised its production targets for most of the year before deciding to keep them unchanged for October. In September, the group completed the gradual phaseout of a 1.65 million-barrel-per-day supply cut agreed in 2023.
OPEC data showed that the seven key countries produced about 25 million barrels per day in August, an increase of 630,000 barrels per day from July, but remained about 5 million barrels per day below prewar levels in February.
2027 production quotas
The group is expected to leave production targets unchanged during the final quarter of 2026, as its focus shifts to negotiations over production quotas for 2027. Another tranche of production cuts totaling about 2 million barrels per day remains in place for most members of the group through the end of 2026.
Before setting 2027 quotas, OPEC+ needs to complete a review of member countries’ production capacities to determine the new baselines on which future quotas and plans to phase out the remaining cuts will be based. U.S. consultancy DeGolyer and MacNaughton is expected to submit its report on the production capacity of member countries soon.
Market monitoring and production compliance
The Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee, or JMMC, will meet on Sunday alongside the meeting of the seven countries to review oil-market conditions. The committee does not have the authority to make decisions on production policy, but it monitors members’ compliance with production levels and provides an assessment of market developments.
Crude exports from Middle Eastern producers rose to 16.328 million barrels per day in September, the highest level since the war began in February, but remained below prewar levels. According to the sources, keeping November targets unchanged is consistent with the group’s approach of monitoring supplies and production capacity before taking further steps, particularly as it prepares to set quotas for 2027.
